Since most people fail to realize how Mock Drafts actually work, or the utter futility of doing a Mock Draft when the actual event is still more than two full months away, let’s re-establish some ground rules:
These picks are based on the combination of best available players at positions of (mostly consensus) need for each team at this point in time.
Those team needs are based on reporting and analysis from people who follow the team on a regular basis (as opposed to what I think a team’s needs might be). And much of those needs are going to change anyway once free agency starts in about a month.
These picks are also not based on what I think each team should do, because what I think a team’s needs might be or what they should do in a given situation is completely meaningless and devoid of value to you.
These picks do not include any analysis on why that particular player will fit well with that team, since positional rankings (and individual team preferences) will vary greatly between now and late April. In other words: outside of the first four picks, don’t get invested in any particular player going to any particular team; use this as a general sense of who could be available and what your favorite team might do at that point in the Draft.
I really, really don’t care who you think will or won’t be available at a given pick. It’s WAY too early to make any such assertions. So if you have any such feedback you’d like to provide, do us all a favor by pulling your bottom lip up all the way over your head, and swallowing.
With all of that said, hold on to your butts…
1. Chicago (via Carolina) — Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Everyone in the media (whom I trust) firmly believes—at this point in time—that 1) the Chicago Bears will trade quarterback Justin Fields this offseason, and 2) Caleb Williams will be the #1 overall pick come Draft day.
2. Washington — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
With the new regime in place, it’s hard to see Washington running it back with Sam Howell at quarterback, especially since they’ll have the opportunity to select a (new) cornerstone player at the position1.
3. New England — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
I’ll break my own rule this one time by talking about the player instead of the pairing. I believe that, come Draft day, Jayden Daniels will be a top-3 selection. Whether he lasts until #3 overall, and whether it’s New England making this pick, are the storylines to be examined this spring.
4. Arizona — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
As close to a “write this pairing in permanent marker” pairing as we can get this early on, barring any unforeseen trades by Arizona or a team looking to leapfrog them.
5. LA Chargers — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
By many accounts, the Chargers were seriously considering taking a tight end with their top pick in last year’s Draft, before opting to select wide receiver Quentin Johnson instead. With the uncertainty around the futures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams next year2, it would behoove the team to ensure Justin Herbert has the requisite targets to sufficiently operate.
6. NY Giants — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Sign me up for the Giants throwing good money (in the form of a prime Draft asset) after bad (the idea that Daniel Jones could be a viable quarterback). In fact, sign me up for anything that ensures the Giants keep Jones as their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future.
7. Tennessee — Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Not much has changed since last offseason, when it comes to the offensive line for the Tennessee Titans: it’s still an abject mess. The left tackle rotation of Andre Dillard and Nicholas Petit-Frere were particularly bad.
8. Atlanta — Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama
We’re now up to seven seasons (and counting) since the Falcons had any player register double-digit sacks. Of course, the quarterback position for the Falcons is an even bigger problem, so they’re definitely a team to watch for, as far as trading up in the Draft3.
9. Chicago — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Edge rusher might be a darkhorse position here, but giving whomever the Bears make their quarterback of the future another receiving weapon alongside of D.J. Moore would be an ideal scenario.
10. NY Jets — Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
"The New York Jets need help along the offensive line"4 is a more obvious statement than "water is wet" and "Taylor Swift has officially ruined all Super Bowl parties."
11. Minnesota — Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport are both set to become free agents this offseason5. That means that the only defensive end to finish last season that's still under contract is 2023 undrafted rookie Andre Carter.
12. Denver — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
One of the primary needs for Denver — outside of their ongoing mess at the quarterback position — is an upgrade at the cornerback spot opposite of Patrick Surtain.
13. Las Vegas — Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Under General Manager Tom Telesco, the Los Angeles Chargers used their first round pick on an offensive lineman twice in the past three NFL Drafts. The Raiders could use this pick to bolster the right tackle spot and let incumbent Jermaine Eluemunor leave in free agency.
14. New Orleans — Laiatu Latu, DE/OLB, UCLA
People who follow the team agree that the Saints need more juice and playmaking from their edge rushers6.
15. Indianapolis — Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Though the Colts were pleased with how rookies JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones held up at cornerback last season, they lack both depth at the position, as well as a true alpha dog CB1.
16. Seattle — JC Latham, OT, Alabama
No tackle tandem allowed a higher pressure rate than Seattle’s duo last season. They should probably do something to fix that.
17. Jacksonville — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
It's very possible that both of the Jaguars' starting cornerbacks on opening day of 2023 (Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams) aren't with the team after the upcoming 2024 season. Both of them are free agents at season's end, and neither appear to be a good fit in the preferred scheme of new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen.
18. Cincinnati — Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Bengals were in the bottom 3 in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed by their defense last season. Plus, defensive tackle DJ Reader enters free agency dealing with a season-ending quadriceps injury; opposite of Reader is B.J. Hill, who'll be a free agent after the 2024 season.
19. LA Rams — Bralen Trice, DE/OLB, Washington
The Rams’ list of needs is starts with an edge rusher, probably two cornerbacks and offensive and defensive linemen. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they used this pick on a pass catcher.
20. Pittsburgh — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Steelers have almost $35M in cap room tied up by three starters in their secondary (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Patrick Peterson, and Damontae Kazee); it’ll be very difficult for them to find cap space to re-sign either Levi Wallace or Chandon Sullivan. In other words: Pittsburgh will basically have Peterson7 and Joey Porter Jr. at cornerback… and that’s it.
21. Miami — Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Miami can't keep taking the duct tape and popsicle sticks approach with their offensive tackle depth, especially knowing that Terron Armstead can’t stay healthy (and has seriously considered retirement this offseason).
22. Philadelphia — Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
While cornerback appears to be a major (if not glaring) position of need for Philadelphia8, their MO under Howie Roseman has always been to restock their talent along both sides of the line of scrimmage.
23. Houston (from Cleveland) — Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
It’s kinda jarring to see how a team that finished with the second-worst record in the NFL last year doesn’t have any glaring needs9. However, defensive tackle is one of the two bigger spots of need both on the defense and the team in general.
24. Dallas — Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State
Dallas’ pass rush (or lack thereof) came up glaringly short in their playoff loss to Green Bay. Between Demarcus Lawrence’s age (he’ll turn 32 this offseason) and the the pending free agencies of Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr, few would fault the Cowboys if they added another pass rusher early on in this Draft10.
25. Green Bay — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Green Bay will likely need reinforcements across their entire secondary, especially if they decide they want to relieve themselves of the headaches that Jaire Alexander has provided them as of late.
26. Tampa Bay — Chris Braswell, DE/OLB, Alabama
Outside of rookie edge rusher Yaya Diaby, nobody on the Buccaneers had more than 7 sacks last season. Translation: edge rusher is a need (and priority) for them11.
27. Arizona (from Houston) — Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
Arizona taking a cornerback in this (totally hypothetical) situation allows them to walk out of the first round of the Draft having reinforced two of their biggest needs entering this offseason.
28. Buffalo — Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Gabe Davis is a free agent and just too erratic as a legitimate option in this offense. And Stefon Diggs remains cranky. Even after drafting Dalton Kincaid last year, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if Buffalo tries to give Josh Allen as many assets to work with as possible12.
29. Detroit — Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
Detroit’s secondary wasn’t exactly a strength of the team last year, and a bunch of the guys they did have will be free agents this offseason. But Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell march to the beat of their own drum when it comes to the Draft, so who the hell knows what they’ll actually do with this pick. After all, were sure they were going to take a cornerback with their top pick last year, right?13
30. Baltimore — Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Simple juxtaposition of best player available at one of the few positions of relative need for Baltimore, particularly since neither of their current starting guards are under contract for next season.
31. San Francisco — Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Despite what most people will want to see/hear, the 49ers aren’t using this pick on a quarterback14. But, right tackle is an area in which San Francisco could use an immediate upgrade. Incumbent Colton McKivitz ranked near the bottom of the league at his position, allowing both the fourth-most total pressures (52) and the fourth-most sacks (nine) among all offensive tackles.
32. Kansas City — Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
I know they’re the champs, but the fact remains: no team’s pass catchers dropped more passes than the Kansas City Chiefs. With teams often triple-teaming Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ wide receivers—outside of Rashee Rice—were of no help to Patrick Mahomes15.
Assuming Caleb Williams doesn’t somehow fall to the #2 pick, I still think trading back is an option that Washington should meaningfully explore. Although, I am giving serious consideration as to whether Washington, if they do take a quarterback at #2, take that other top QB prospect available (as in, the one whom I have going at #3). More on that for a later day, though.
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have the two highest salary cap hits for any wide receiver in the NFL next year, at $34.7 and $32.4 million respectively. Those numbers would make them the 13th and 15th-highest paid players in the league. They’re a huge reason why the Chargers are projected to be a staggering $35 million over the cap entering this offseason.
All of that being said: I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if this pick was actually a wide receiver come Draft day. Also, as Daniel Jeremiah alluded to after creating his first Mock Draft of the offseason: it’s not entirely out of the question that the Chargers actually take a cornerback with this pick—particularly since it might be their biggest positional need at the moment.
If the Falcons actually stay in this spot come Draft day, it might be because they signed Russell Wilson as their stop-gap solution at quarterback. Keep an eye on that (h/t to Benjamin Allbright).
A lot can/will happen between now and Draft day, but it’s not surprising to see/hear that General Manager Joe Douglas liked what he saw from Taliese Fuaga. Fuaga protects his quarterback with the same ferocity that you’d see from a father who accompanied his daughter to a frat house.
And the Vikings won't be able to use the franchise tag on Hunter, meaning that he’s likely to get a beaucoup contract in free agency from some other team.
In general, predicting what the Saints will do with their top pick in the Draft is like spinning around in a busy bar and throwing a dart while blindfolded: you have no idea where it’s going to go, what's going to happen, or how much it's going to end up costing.
There’s also the fact that Patrick Peterson will be 34 years old at the start of next season, and playing on the final year of his own contract.
Somewhere in the multiverse, the Eagles actually did part ways with cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry last offseason (instead of bringing them back at the 11th hour); remember how reports leaked out that the Eagles were planning to release Slay last year after allowing him to (unsuccessfully) seek a trade? Regardless, neither of them are getting any younger, and Bradberry was atrocious this past season in coverage.
Amidst all the fallout from Bill Belichick’s departure in New England, there’s been a bunch of reporting & discussion about how much Belichick really trusted Nick Caserio’s input when the latter was in New England, and how much he missed said input after Caserio became Houston’s General Manager.
Depending on how the run on offensive tackles shakes out in the first round, that could also be a position the Cowboys address with their top pick. They have to start thinking about the long-term replacement strategy for Tyron Smith; if that plan is Tyler Smith, it'll open up a need elsewhere along the offensive line.
The original thought here was the Buccaneers looking at a wide receiver in the first round with Mike Evans’ pending free agency, but it’s hard to see them not going all-in on resigning Evans after the season he had (79 catches for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns).
That being said: I saw Dane Brugler of TheAthletic mentioning how offensive tackle could be an option here, as both of the Bills’ starting offensive tackles (Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown) will be free agents after the 2024 season. And lest we forget: if Dawkins held his ground for about 0.5 seconds more against Chris Jones in the AFC Divisional Playoff game, it would’ve been Buffalo advancing to take on Baltimore in the AFC Championship.
Remember when this dumb-dumb head said that Detroit drafting cornerback Devon Witherspoon was the second-biggest lock in the 2023 NFL Draft? What a dumbhead that guy was/is. Although I do have it on good authority that said dumbhead strongly believes that if Witherspoon did fall to #6, the Lions would’ve taken him there; that was the guy the Lions had their eye on all along. But instead, the Lions were able to make an immediate pivot right as they were on the clock with their pick, being able to trade down from #6 to #12 snagging a second round pick from Arizona (who wanted to move up and grab offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr.) and using that pick to take running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
And in case you were wondering: the dumb-dumb head to whom I’m cryptically referring is me. I’m the dumbhead.
I usually drop in similar caveats at the very end of round one Mock Drafts each year, but it's particularly relevant this year: don't be surprised to see one of the teams picking at the very end of round one — I'd have my eye on Kansas City, San Francisco, and/or Baltimore in particular — trade out of their current pick, with a team looking to move up into the first round to select either quarterback JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix… if they’re still available. Three teams I could see making such a move up, from the second round into the latter parts of the first round: Las Vegas, Atlanta, and/or New Orleans.
I challenge anyone to tell me that Kadarius Toney isn’t the most overrated football player in the NFL, from the perspective of perception of how good that players is versus how good (or really not good) that player is. ■