One of the surefire signs of the downfall of Western civilization, to me at least, is reading the Twitter replies anytime a respected NFL Draft analyst posts a Mock Draft prior to the month of April.
Here’s a sampling of some of the usual digital fare you’ll find:
“[well justified selection] is a TERRIBLE pick [person's favorite team]!!!”
“[favorite team] DEFINITELY won't take a [clear and unassailable position of need] in the 1st round”
“hate this for the [person's favorite team]”
“this would be an absolutely terrible pick for [person's favorite team]”
“I think I’d actually vomit if they took [well justified selection].”
“[well justified selection] is a disqualifyingly moronic pick”
“[well justified selection]?!?! You’re a moron.”
I mean, who needs Hegel and Tolstoy when you’re treated to such intellectually-inclined publishing?
The fact that people take the time to provide such commentary, fully knowing that Mock Drafts in late March are about as useful as a boomerang grenade, is both baffling and maddening. Literally nobody—including the General Managers of NFL teams—has a firm grasp on which players will be taken by which teams approximately one month from now.
The whole point of a Mock Draft is to predict what you think a given team will do1. In my opinion, the the best way to mitigate that is to comb through whatever reliable information is available, and make the best possible prediction based on that—knowing you’re very likely to be (very wrong), since the latest intel is sure to change between now late April.
1. Carolina (from Chicago) — CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
At least as of right now, this pick is a toss up between CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. While I do believe that owner David Tepper is a fan of the latter, I’m sticking to my guns as far as my reaction as soon as this trade was made: that Stroud better fits the profile of what new head coach Frank Reich prefers in a quarterback.
2. Houston—Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
This pairing is a layup if Bryce Young isn’t taken with the first overall pick. He’s the guy that Houston has wanted all along, and he’d fit well in the Shanahan-variant scheme that they’ll run under new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
3. Arizona—Will Anderson, DE/OLB, Alabama
Conversely, this is the spot that could make any and all mock drafts even more useless than they already are. I’d give a solid 80/20 chance that Arizona isn’t making this pick in this spot come late April2; the problem is, I don’t think this pick gets traded until very close to the Draft—if not day 1 of the Draft itself.
4. Indianapolis—Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
If “conventional wisdom” is to be believed, this is whom the Indianapolis Colts will take… because somebody has to play quarterback for them. Now, am I certain that the Colts would be comfortable with taking Anthony Richardson and making him their opening day starter? Absolutely not.
5. Seattle (from Denver)—Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Even with the internet freaking out the less-than-desirable pro day performance by Jalen Carter (not to mention the other ‘maturity’-related questions), most league executives still doubt he’d fall outside the top 7 picks. Seattle isn’t always a ‘conventional wisdom’ type of team, but Carter would represent the best available player at a position of need at this spot.
6. Detroit (from LA Rams)— Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
After signing two cornerbacks in free agency, Detroit could/would seemingly use this pick on one of the ‘premium’ players in this Draft to further bolster their defensive line, and place a premium rusher opposite of Aidan Hutchinson.
7. Las Vegas—Peter Skoronski, OT/OL, Northwestern
As of this mock, Las Vegas needs significant upgrades at both spots on the right side of their offensive line (and maybe left guard too). It’s very possible that they could take the best offensive line prospect in this class, figure out whether he’s better suited to play guard or tackle once he’s in camp, and proceed accordingly.
8. Atlanta—Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
For yet another season, one of Atlanta’s biggest needs is an edge rusher3. The current regime, in particular, is looking for a bigger-bodied defensive end more in the mold of a prototypical 4-3 edge defender.
9. Chicago (from Carolina)—Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
If you read between the lines of Chicago “emphasizing overall athleticism and scheme fit” in regards to someone on their offensive line, Paris Johnson makes a lot of sense—perhaps more so than some of the other OL prospects4.
10. Philadelphia (from New Orleans)—Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Admittedly a connect-the-dots projection here. Under Howie Roseman, the Eagles focus on picking the player with the highest upside at a position of value. Given how much they spent to bring back Darius Slay and James Bradberry, it’s pretty clear they value the cornerback position5.
11. Tennessee—Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Titans entered free agency needing to address four of the five spots along their offensive line. They did sign two guys who are currently slated to play on the left side of their offensive line. Adding a guy like Wright would allow them to use he and Nicholas Petit-Frere and to fill out the right guard and right tackle spots.
12. Houston (from Cleveland)—Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
This pick feels almost like a cliché at this point, but it’s still hard to argue wide receiver being Houston’s second biggest need at the moment, alongside quarterback. If they did take a wide receiver here6, the early hunch is that they’d favor Smith-Njigba among the available prospects.
13. NY Jets—Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Another inflection point in this Draft, considering the possibility that New York trades this pick to (FINALLY) consummate their acquisition of a certain diva quarterback. Assuming the Jets don’t trade this pick, the early word is that we shouldn’t be surprised if the Jets draft an offensive tackle early on.
14. New England—Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
You’re absolutely lying to yourself if you think you can project, with any level of certainty, what Bill Belichick will do on Draft night (unless it’s trading down… if not trading away the pick entirely for additional picks in the subsequent year’s draft). Aside from that, all we can reasonably deduce is them taking a player that best fits their ideal height-weight-speed profile, at a position of need.
15. Green Bay—Nolan Smith, DE/OLB, Georgia
Green Bay needs more pass rushing help/depth on the edge spot, particularly if Rashan Gary is still recovering from his ACL injury early on this season. No player boosted his ‘Draft Stock’ at the combine more than Nolan Smith, and he’d be a perfect rotational/situational piece for them to use in the referenced capacity.
16. Washington—Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The current regime in Washington likes to draft for need, and they cannot enter another season hoping Benjamin St. Juste stays healthy, and using the hodgepodge of depth guys as a starter if he doesn’t7.
17. Pittsburgh—Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama
Even if the Steelers bring back Terrell Edmunds, they could still use Brian Branch in their three-safety looks, with Damontae Kazee being more of a depth piece. Plus, this pick would give them leverage so as to not have to over-commit to Edmunds.
18. Detroit—O'Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
Detroit did re-sign Graham Glasgow, but he could be a swing backup along the interior. This pick would allow them to consider moving on from Halapoulivaati Vaitai after this season and enjoy the big cap relief.
19. Tampa Bay—Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Baker Mayfield is on a one-year deal, and while Tampa will say all the right things publicly about Kyle Trask, it definitely behooves them to find more competition for the long-term starting spot8.
20. Seattle—Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Seahawks can’t be content to enter the season with Dee Eskridge and Dareke Young as their options for the #3 receiver spot in this offense. Finding a third pass catcher whom defenses must respect remains a priority for Seattle.
21. LA Chargers—Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Even with certified dudes like Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the edges, the Chargers still need to add another edge rusher9—either as the primary backup for/rotational piece with those two, or as insurance in case either get injured.
22. Baltimore—Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
For all the attention paid to Baltimore’s wide receiver options (or lack thereof) yet again, cornerback is a position they could very likely address with an early pick in the Draft, given their need opposite Marlon Humphrey.
23. Minnesota— Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Wide receiver is the biggest need for Minnesota right now, especially now that Adam Thielen is gone. That leaves K.J. Osborn as their only receiver of consequence on the Vikings’ roster (not named Justin Jefferson).
24. Jacksonville—Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Yes, Evan Engram finished 4th among all NFL tight ends last season in receptions (73) and receiving yards (766). But, those were outlier numbers for his career. Given that he’s playing on the one-year franchise offer, adding Mayer gives Jacksonville flexibility both at the position overall, and in case they can’t extend Engram via a long-term deal.
25. NY Giants—Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Sure, the New York Giants added Darren Waller via a trade. But the fact remains: they have too many up-and-down and/or injury-riddled players at wide receiver to feel like they could be comfortable with their current group—not to mention the fact that they don’t have a true “alpha” guy.
26. Dallas—Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Given their lack of depth at the position, and the fact that they didn’t really devote any of their precious few free agent resources there, defensive tackle is a position Dallas reportedly will look to address in the early rounds of this Draft10.
27. Buffalo—Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Buffalo will likely have to offset Tremaine Edmunds’ departure with something of a platoon, meaning they could use incumbents Terrel Bernard and Tyrel Dodson initially while giving a guy like Simpson time to develop11.
28. Cincinnati—Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The acquisition of OT Orlando Jones Jr. puts Cincinnati in the awkward spot of moving Jonah Williams to right tackle, which he’s not too keen on, or trading away a young asset in Williams at a position in which they’re already thin. Adding Harrison, whose best position in the NFL figures to be at right tackle, would help offset the eventual trading away of Williams.
29. New Orleans (from San Francisco via Miami and Denver)—Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
New Orleans signed defensive tackles Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepard, but the latter has always been more of a rotational piece in his career, and New Orleans could easily move on from either of those guys over the next two offseasons. Point being: this position is far from set for them.
30. Philadelphia—Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Look, I’m as far away from having any type of certainty that the Eagles would actually draft a running back with a first round pick as you can possibly be12. But, I’m much more certain that Bijan Robinson is going to go in the first round of this year’s Draft, and I cannot justifiably slot him in with another team. So I’m putting him here. So again, in case I haven't made myself clear: I DON'T ACTUALLY THINK THE EAGLES WILL TAKE ROBINSON HERE.
31. Kansas City—Will McDonald IV, DE/OLB, Iowa State
GM Brett Veach has consistently focused on upgrading the offensive and defensive lines for Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs devoted a first round pick in last year’s Draft on George Karlaftis. Even then, the team still needs depth at the position13 ■.
The only thing I hate more than flaming a noted draft analyst about why you hate their pick, is people who create Mock Drafts comprised of picks THEY think a team should make. The entire concept of a Mock Draft was invented by NFL General Manager’s trying to game out what will happen on Draft Day; not what they think should happen, but what they think will happen. So in case I’m not clear: nobody gives a shit about who you think they should take.
Two part footnote here:
New Arizona Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort, is a New England expat, by way of Tennessee. Throughout his career, he’s been a part of multiple teams who have traded down from their picks in the Draft (Houston in 2005, Tennessee in 2022, and a slew of drafts with the Patriots). it would make plenty of sense for Ossenfort to trade back from #3, pick up a bunch of draft capital, and reshape the roster to his likeness.
I put a lot of stock into comments like these from Benjamin Allbright (regarding Arizona), whose track record is pretty pristine with stuff like this.
The last time the Falcons had any player register double-digit sacks in a season was Vic Beasley in 2016.
Given the rave reviews about Johnson coming out of Ohio State’s pro day workouts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he slips into the top 10 picks (even if that feels a bit high for him), given the demand for offensive linemen in this Draft.
I recognize the idea of using a top-10 pick on a cornerback after bringing back Slay and Bradberry feels redundant, if not contradictory. My take: Roseman has no problem using a premium draft pick on a player that’ll fit a need a season or two from now, and the Eagles will almost certainly release one of those two guys after the 2024 season.
Even after projecting a wide receiver with this pick, I still have a very difficult time believing that a newly-hired defensive-minded head coach would use both his Round 1 picks on offensive players. In other words: I have zero confidence in this pick.
If you’re the betting type, I would strongly recommend wagering Witherspoon not actually being available when Washington makes this pick. I’m pretty confident someone would jump up to grab him before/during the potential run on cornerbacks between #14 and #18—that is, if he isn’t taken among the top 10 to 12 picks.
I try really, really hard not to look at any other Mock Drafts from the more esteemed analysts, when preparing my own. That being said, I did notice that Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network made this same pick in his most recent Mock. Trust me when I say that I made this pick independently/before I saw his mock—even if I do agree with the logic.
Many, many mock drafts have the Chargers taking a wide receiver or even a tight end—and I’m hard-pressed to disagree with the logic behind that pairing. Behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer, none of the other wide receivers on the roster had a single target from Justin Herbert in 2022. Point being: they need more dudes to whom Herbert can throw.
My initial knee-jerk reaction was to pair the Cowboys with a tight end at this pick. But the more and more you read, they’re apparently fine with taking the proverbial “moneyball” approach to replacing whatever they got (and now lost) from Dalton Schultz, using incumbents Jake Ferguson (their 4th round pick in last year's Draft) and Peyton Hendershot (a 2022 undrafted free agent who played in all 17 games last year).
I will readily admit: there is zero good intel out there on what Buffalo could/would do with this pick. Linebacker and safety are probably the Bills’ two biggest needs, and there isn’t anyone at either position in this part of the Draft that really would warrant such a selection. You could maybe talk me into them taking a receiver to add alongside Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis; I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what ended up happening. But given the juxtaposition of their pick, their needs, and the players available, my gut feeling is that they’ll trade down from this pick, and out of the first round entirely.
Philadelphia does have the luxury of using a premium pick on a running back, particularly after letting Miles Sanders (and his 1,200 rushing yards last year) leave town. And please don’t try and sell me any nonsense about Rashad Penny; his next healthy season will be his first one. Still, I have a very hard time imagining the Eagles wanting to pay the costly 5th-year option for first round picks to a running back. So, I'm essentially making this pick by process of elimination. Mock Drafts are stupid.
I’ll be honest with you: I don’t truly think Will McDonald fits what Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs look for in an edge rusher; I just think he’s a fun-as-hell prospect, and I wanted to include him in the first round of this Mock. In case you forgot: Mock Drafts are stupid.
Personally, my gut tells me that this pick is probably more of a 50/35/15 split—a 50% chance Kansas City trades down from this pick, a 30% chance they actually take an offensive lineman here, and a 15% chance they keep the pick and select any other position besides offensive line. But as mentioned earlier, you shouldn’t really care about my opinion, because I’m just some knucklehead with a blog—and I don’t have a modicum of real insight into what the Chiefs will actually do…. or what any of the 23+ teams in this Draft will do, either.