Washington’s Two Options At #2 Overall
The Commanders could address the quarterback position at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft... or they could position themselves to refurbish a roster filled with needs almost everywhere.
The only thing that really went right for the 2023 Washington Commanders was the fact that the team didn't find a way to secure a meaningless if not pyrrhic victory over the second half of the season, and maintained their 8-game winning streak that yielded them a final win-loss record of 4-13, thereby securing the #2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Which begs the obvious question: what should Washington do with said pick?
Given the struggles that quarterback Sam Howell endured this season (particularly over the back half of the season), the idea of the Commanders potentially selecting one of the top quarterback prospects in said Draft—Drake Maye from UNC, Jayden Daniels from LSU, or Caleb Williams from USC (if he doesn't go #1 overall)—is both reasonable and seemingly obvious.
But between said riches at the quarterback position at the top of the Draft, combined with the fact that at least five of the teams picking between #4 and #15 having glaring needs for both an immediate and long-term answer at the quarterback position, the potential for Washington to trade back from #2 overall has to be explored as well.
While Ron Rivera might be right (to some extent) about having changed the culture of the organization, when it comes to on-field personnel, the cupboard of talent remaining is woefully empty.
At minimum, the Commanders are in need of:
4 starting offensive linemen
A #3/slot receiver
A starting tight end
Both starting defensive end spots
Two starters at linebacker1
A starter at cornerback
A starter at safety
That’s 12 starters. Twelve. Out of a possible 22 starting spots.
One of the (many) things that drives me insane in regards to the NFL Draft is when a fan of particular team myopically (if not boorishly) screams about how said team could’ve/should’ve traded down for more picks—completely failing to acknowledge the fact that any such trade requires a partner willing to pay the cost to move up and make the swap.
But again: given the bumper crop of blue chip prospects at the top of the Draft, Washington almost certainly will have their fair share of bidders for #2 overall. Nobody should be surprised if the Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, or the Saints2—and maybe some under-the-radar darkhorse team as well— started kicking tired on what it would take to move up to the top of the Draft3 and grab one of the aforementioned quarterbacks.
Let’s say one of those teams makes an offer to Washington that’s similar to what Carolina gave Chicago to move up from #9 overall to #1 overall: A swap of firsts, a 2nd round pick this year, a first round pick next year, a 2nd in 2026, plus some immediate-contribution player or an equivalent Draft pick.
If you’re Washington, don’t you have to give serious consideration to such an offer?
Fully recognizing the opportunity to “reset” the organization by securing a new football Czar4 and head coach, and top-2 pick to acquire a foundational quarterback prospect (playing on a rookie quarterback deal for the next four years)5, perhaps it would behoove the team to do something we haven’t seen it do in decades: play the long game.
With a trade down, the Commanders could conceivably still land one of the top-level players in this year’s Draft in the #8-#14 range (particularly at the offensive lineman or edge rusher positions), while further filling its proverbial war chest with even more valuable picks to restock this highly depleted roster—Washington already has five picks among the top 100 selections, and such a deal could bump them up to six or seven in that range.
Think about how many spots on the roster they could reinforce with just one Draft.
Yes, it’s an admittedly a risky proposition to try and build the rest of the team while banking on a band aid solution at quarterback in 2024 (ie, rolling with Howell for another year or overpaying for some veteran retread); lord knows we had enough of that approach from Rivera over the past four years.
But the truth is, regardless of what they end up doing with the #2 pick, there’s a strong likelihood that the Commanders are not going to be very good (again) in 2024. In which case, they might find themselves in a similar position next offseason—wanting/needing to Draft a blue chip ‘quarterback of the future.’6
I’ve always been a believer in the “don’t pass on paper for coins” approach when it comes to the Draft; more picks doesn’t always yield more roster reinforcements7 .
But with faith in whomever owner Josh Harris hires to oversee football operations, combined with the aforementioned list of needs, giving the new regime as many opportunities as possible to rebuild a roster that’s a lot more barren than many people realize might be the optimal way to approach things this spring. ■
Or one traditional linebacker plus a big-nickel linebacker.
I would've included the New York Giants, but I can't see Washington wanting to make a trade that helps out a division rival. So that rules them out. Plus I hate them anyway.
One interesting wrinkle in all of this is the potential (if not likelihood) of Chicago trading away the #1 overall pick as well. But there’s a somewhat-recent precedent for the incumbent teams at #1 and #2 overall making trades with quarterback-seeking teams—like in the 2016 NFL Draft, when the Rams traded with the Titans for #1 overall (and took Jared Goff) and the Eagles traded with the Browns for #2 overall (and took Carson Wentz).
Washington has narrowed down their candidates to Adam Peters (currently with the San Francisco 49ers) and Ian Cunningham (currently with the Chicago Bears) as of this being published.
h/t to my buddy Pat for that eloquent phrasing.
For those wondering, the headliners at quarterback in next year's Draft appear to be Shedeur Sanders of Colorado, Quinn Ewers of Texas, and Carson Beck of Georgia (not necessarily in that order).
Remember when the Rams seemingly fleeced Washington in the RG3 trade in 2012? They added 8 players over the subsequent two drafts from the trade package Washington gave. Among those 8, none of them would turn into Pro Bowl players for the Rams. And the Rams finished with 5-straight losing seasons after making that deal.