Yesterday morning, a particular NFL team-based blogger posted a question on Twitter, asking fans of a particular team to PREDICT WHICH PLAYER THAT TEAM WOULD SELECT with their first round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The answers, of course, were as breathtakingly maddening and moronic as you’d expect:
“I really want them to take [player]”
“My preference is for them to take [player]”
“If I were the GM, I would take [player]”
“I think they need to take [player]”
“Can we all agree that it would be ideal if they took [player]?”
I’ve never face-palmed so hard in my life, as I did when I was reading these responses.
If you take away NOTHING from any Mock Draft you read from this moment onwards, please understand: the genesis of Mock Drafts was NFL General Managers sitting around and debating what other teams would do, so they have a better understanding of the different scenarios that might take place before their team is ready to pick, and which players might (or might not) be available when they pick.
Again, it’s not who they would pick for a particular team, or what they think a team should do—it’s a walkthrough of what they think other teams will do.
In case I haven’t made myself clear: A MOCK DRAFT IS A MOCK/SIMULATION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE NFL DRAFT.
What you think should happen, what you hope will happen, or what you would do in a particular situation, is 100,000,000% irrelevant.
So with all of that being said: on this auspicious and holy day in which we observe the first round of the 2023 edition of the NFL’s annual college selection meeting, the following mock draft is my PREDICTION of what will take place in Round 1 tonight.
And if you’d like greater insight/analysis regarding the player your team might (or does) end up selecting in the first round, I strongly recommend checking out my ‘Top 63 Big Board,’ which contains scouting profiles for each of the top prospects.
1. Carolina (from Chicago)—Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Talked about this in our most recent “Mocking and Betting on the 2023 NFL Draft” episode of the Hail To The District podcast: this pick has been all but a foregone conclusion for the last couple of weeks. Nothing more to discuss here.
2. Houston—Will Anderson, DE/OLB, Alabama
Full disclosure here: when originally publishing this final Mock, I had Tyree Wilson selected here. That was the intel I had going to bed on Wednesday night (combined with Peter King mentioning it on Monday, along with Peter Schrager1 and then Benjamin Allbright). I did mention my skepticism of that pairing. But this morning, things have changed—as in, all signs point to Anderson. That was my thinking all along with this pick, evidenced by our discussion in the podcast episode linked above. So, I’ve revised this pick.
3. Arizona—Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
If Arizona cannot find a partner to consummate this trade, I’m going to stick with the original thinking that they’ll settle in to taking Tyree Wilson2. But, the latest-latest intel, as of Thursday morning, continues to point towards a team trading up for this pick—with the Tennessee Titans being the headline suitor.
4. Indianapolis—Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Again, there’s just too much noise here to ignore it. Right now, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who truly believes the Colts would actually take CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson here.
5. Seattle (from Denver)—Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I know I directly stated otherwise in the aforementioned podcast. But this is basically a “process of elimination” pairing—all things being equal, I still believe the Seahawks would prefer to walk away with Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson here. I will say: if both of them are gone when it’s time for them to make their pick, I think they start working the phones for a trade down.
6. Detroit (from LA Rams)—Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Easily the second safest bet among the top 10 picks in this Draft, only behind Bryce Young going #1. Don't overthink this.3
7. Las Vegas—C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
It would not surprise me if Las Vegas didn’t actually take a quarterback here, and instead addressed the cornerback position (ie Christian Gonzalez) or the offensive line (Peter Skoronski) with this pick. But, there’s been rumors about the Raiders initially being interested in moving up, with the objective of grabbing Stroud; now, it appears they won’t have to do that.
8. Atlanta—Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Even after the acquisition of Jeff Okudah from Detroit, cornerback was/is still a position of need for Atlanta. Most people believe that, all things being equal, Atlanta is hoping that Gonzalez falls to them here.
9. Chicago (from Carolina)—Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
I see the Peter Skoronski smoke here, but I think the need at left tackle is much more acute for Chicago, to the point where they’d rather take the guy with the higher probability of success at the position.
10. Philadelphia (from New Orleans)—Nolan Smith, DE/OLB, Georgia
New defensive coordinator Sean Desai is going to try and put ALL the pass rushers on the field for the Eagles next year. Thinking about Smith in a rotation with the rest of the Eagles’ guys should send a cold sweat down the spines of fans of rival NFC East teams.
11. Tennessee—Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Titans have been laying the groundwork for finding a replacement, through this Draft, for Ryan Tannehill. If they were able to take Richardson at #11, without having to trade up to get him, it would put them in great position to effectively allow Richardson to redshirt his first season in the NFL.
12. Houston (from Cleveland)—Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
This hunch felt right over the last few weeks. If Houston does take a defensive prospect with their first pick in Round 1, expect this one to help upgrade the offense… perhaps even via a trade up for a quarterback4.
13. Green Bay (from NY Jets)—Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Sticking with the previously-mentioned theme of Green Bay looking to bolster its pass rush. The Packers generally place a premium on premium spots (like edge rusher), and Lukas Van Ness represents the best player available at such a premium position.
14. New England—Peter Skoronski, OT/OL, Northwestern
Like Albert Breer said: the Patriots (generally) try and play it safe with their picks. I’m not sure that Peter Skoronski meets the requisite measurables that Bill Belichick usually requires, but maybe he slides into right guard initially?
15. NY Jets (from Green Bay)—Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
All signs continue to point at the New York Jets using this pick on the best available offensive tackle—particularly someone who could take over for Mekhi Becton, if necessary.
16. Washington—Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The current Washington regime generally tends to draft the best available player based on areas of need. In this year’s Draft, that identified need is offensive tackle. This is the name that keeps popping up among the Washington beat reporters5.
17. Pittsburgh—Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Cornerback remains a position of need for Pittsburgh, and there is some juice around the Steelers’ interest in Banks.
18. Detroit—O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
If you follow the breadcrumbs of pre-Draft visits, it seems like interior OL is a position the Lions are heavily investigating (which corroborates previous thinking as well).6
19. Tampa Bay—Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
I’ll be honest: I put him here because he’d otherwise fall much further than expected/likely, and because of the buzz that one of his scant few pre-Draft visits was to Tampa Bay. But offensive tackle and/or edge rusher are strong possibilities here as well.
20. Seattle—Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Wide receiver is a strong possibility here too, but I don’t think Pete Carroll and John Schneider will see any alignment of the value of this pick with the available prospects. Instead, they’ll double-down on upgrading their run defense.7
21. LA Chargers—Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Everybody agrees that LA needs additions to its cadre of pass catchers, with tight end feeling like a more of a need than wide receiver. Dalton Kincaid could step in and be a day one target for Justin Herbert.
22. Baltimore—Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Baltimore’s need at cornerback has been discussed previously, and it still sounds like the Ravens would be thrilled if one of the top four cornerbacks were available with this pick. 8
23. Minnesota—Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
Despite the fact that wide receiver remains high on the priority list, Calijah Kancey’s name keeps coming up as a potential target. With only 5 picks, this is a strong trade down possibility too.9
24. Jacksonville—Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson
There’s been breadcrumbs that the Jaguars have done their homework on Brian Bresee, to the point where he now might be on their short list of options at this pick.
25. NY Giants—Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
I continue to see/hear CB as the top target for the Giants in the first round. And I’m sure you’ve seen/heard the chatter around Emmanuel Forbes being in the mix for being taken in the first round.
26. Dallas—Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Despite earlier posturing, there is some movement on the Cowboys seeking a TE. As someone told Matt Miller of ESPN: "There is no way in hell Jerry Jones passes up a Jason Witten clone if he's on the board."
27. Buffalo—Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Wide receiver is a position that the local scribes of Buffalo keep reconnecting to the Bills with this pick. Addison is a guy who’ll give them the versatility and immediate contributions they need.
28. Cincinnati—Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
With Joe Mixon continuing to have Joe Mixon tendencies, combined with his looming salary cap hit of $12.8 million, the Bengals will very likely select a running back in this year’s Draft—perhaps even with a premium pick like this.
29. New Orleans (from from San Francisco via Miami and Denver)—Keion White, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
I don’t know if Ben Solak of TheRinger knows something we don’t know or if he’s just speculating (or outright trolling), but White also fits the profile of the type of edge rusher that Mickey Loomis has sought in the past, and was continually getting top 30 (if not higher) rankings.
30. Philadelphia—Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama
Yes, I’m conveniently borrowing from Benjamin Allbright’s mock (again) here. But that’s because 1) I can’t see Branch falling out of the first round and I’m running out of places/teams to place him, and 2) he would be a perfect fit for the Eagles’ defense based on the multiplicity that Desai likes to use in his secondary, and 3) the Eagles have a very aggravating penchant of selecting guys whom the rest of the league stupidly undervalue.10
31. Kansas City—Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
As much as everyone wants Kansas City to do something flashy and buzzy with this pick, they’ll probably stick to the MO of “building in the trenches”… especially because there’s nothing more important for this team than to protect Patrick Mahomes. So the easy answer here is to take one of the better right tackle prospects available, and pencil him in as the replacement for the departed Andrew Wylie. ■
To be clear, Peter Schrager saying it could very well be Wilson just made me more inclined to think it wouldn’t be Wilson. That guy (Schrager) is a fraud.
I also see the noise about OT Paris Johnson Jr. at this pick, and I totally buy it. The new regime will likely take a “build through the trenches” approach (since that’s what rebuilding teams often default to), and protecting Kyler Murray will be paramount.
I saw a prominent NFL YouTuber doing a mock draft on Wednesday, proclaiming “I think the Lions should take Christian Gonzalez here so that’s who I’ll mock to them”—and it made me want to shove a rusty fork, lathered in ghost pepper wing sauce, into my eyes. NOBODY CARES WHAT YOU THINK THEY SHOULD DO.
Houston might not take Will Levis at #2 overall (despite the Draftmas Eve morning rumor stating otherwise), but if Indianapolis does pass on Levis at #4 and he starts falling towards the latter part of the top 10, it’s very possible that Houston—armed with a couple of picks in the third round—makes a move to leapfrog Tennessee at #11.
To be clear: in this scenario, I think Brian Branch would get a TON of consideration here. It sounds like he’s really high on Washington’s board as well; I wouldn’t be overly surprised if that’s who they ended up taking, even if Wright was available. Emmanuel Forbes is another name to watch here, too.
I’ve seen the other interior OL prospect placed here in other mocks, but I’m sticking with Torrence based off what I’ve seen/read.
In all honesty: if I was able to wager on it, I would put good money on Seattle trading down from this pick. Because that’s just what they do.
Also, this is a sneaky landing spot for Bijan Robinson, if he were to fall this far (can’t find the source for attribution, but I know I saw/read this.)
And yet, don’t sleep on Minnesota being a team that trades up in the first round of this year’s Draft, particularly/specifically to grab a quarterback.
Another name to keep an eye on for the Eagles’ with this pick: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE/DT, Northwestern. He’s been linked to the Eagles in multiple instances, and fits the profile of “let’s take a guy and effectively redshirt him, let him develop a bit more, and unleash him when some of our older guys (read: Fletcher Cox) are ready to come off the books.”