The Winless Colts Can't Even Win The Blame Game Anymore
After another slow start to the season, Indianapolis is staring down the barrel of going winless in their first thee games.
Remember how everything related to the 0-2 finish by the Indianapolis Colts last season was totally and completely all because of Carson Wentz?
I mean, anyone you asked over there would basically tell you that Wentz was the reason the Colts’ swan dived out of a playoff spot and missed the postseason for the second time in three years. It was definitely, unquestionably, and obviously all because of him.
For instance:
Why was Indianapolis trailing by a 26-3 margin, halfway through the 4th quarter of their season finale against Jacksonville? I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that Colts' gave up 231 yards of offense in the first half. No no, it was all because of Carson Wentz; haven’t you been paying attention?!?!?
Why did Indianapolis lose their Week 17 game against the Las Vegas Raiders, even though they 1) were ahead by a 20-13 score in the fourth quarter; 2) had running back Jonathan Taylor run for more than 100 yards, and 3) won the turnover battle (0 vs. 2)? Because it was all Wentz’s fault! Why would you even bother asking such silly questions?!?
Hell, you didn’t even need to broach such silly questions to team owner Jim Irsay. He would go ahead and tell you everything bad that happened last year was all Wentz’s fault on his own—even if you were just asking him what you thought of the weather today, or what does the fox say, or what was his favorite flavor of ice cream, or where did he buy the shoes he’s wearing, or why his father (Bob Irsay) ended up making an impetuous deal to trade John Elway to the Denver Broncos—even though several teams were prepared to offer Colts’ General Manager Ernie Accorsi a far more robust package of players and assets in return1.
Just the mere thought of Wentz, no matter what the surrounding circumstances, effectively turned Irsay into a walking “Sir, this is a Wendy’s” meme.
Now, let’s fast forward eight months—past everyone chortling about how Indianapolis General Manager swindled the Washington Commanders2 by extracting a second and third round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft plus a conditional third in the 2023 Draft in exchange for Wentz; past all the preseason puff pieces about how everything felt totally different because Indianapolis “upgraded” their quarterback from Wentz to Matt Ryan; and even past all the quiet—but consistent and ample—warnings from the Colts’ beat reporters, that Indianapolis faced significant (if not dire) questions about whether there was anyone besides wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. that they could trust to catch passes from Ryan, and whether the the team was approaching it’s starting left tackle spot with anything more than a wing and a prayer.
The Indianapolis Colts have started the season with an 0-1-1 record. Take away their 17-point rally in the 4th quarter of their Week 1 tie, and Indianapolis has been outscored by a 44-6 margin over the other seven quarters3.
A national columnist lambasted the Colts for not only failing to win, but once facing a double-digit deficit, against a "bad" and "stupid" Houston Texans team in Week 1. Even Scott Hanson of NFL’s Red Zone described the events of Indianapolis’ Week 2 performance, essentially verbatim, as “the Jaguars pounded the Colts from start to finish.”
Through two weeks, Jacksonville 31st in total offensive DVOA, including 31st in passing offense DVOA and 24th in rushing offensive DVOA. Their total defensive DVOA ranking is a bit less alarming (they're 18th overall), except that they're 29th in passing defense DVOA. But hey, it’s not like they’re going to face Patrick Mahomes in their home opener this Sunday…
… oh wait, never mind; the Colts are hosting Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. My thoughts and prayers are with them, at this difficult time.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, don’t forget: this is all Carson Wentz’s fault. He’s the source of all their problems. Heck, even a semi-competent upgrade from Wentz should make the Colts a bona fide contender in the AFC, right? As soon as the Colts can find a way to rid themselves of Wentz, everything will be fine. Right?
… oh wait, never mind: the Colts already did that. And nothing really changed for them.
Actually, if we’re being honest, they might be slightly worse now.
Is that Carson Wentz’s fault too?
I won’t deny that I’ve wholeheartedly sang many (many) praises of Indianapolis Colts General Manager Chris Ballard in the past.
I also won’t deny that I, on multiple occasions, have said:
that Ballard is not just among the best General Managers in the NFL, but perhaps the best.
that Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich4 (then the offensive coordinator)—and not head coach Doug Pederson—was the true driving force for the Philadelphia Eagles running roughshod over their opponents for almost the entire 2017 season, en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory.
I will still argue they’ve done a fantastic job of building an ideal culture within the Colts organization, and establishing the foundation for a “good football program.”
But taking that proverbial step from “good” to “great” has consistently eluded them—for a variety of reasons.
In his second NFL Draft as the GM of the Colts5, Ballard basically hit the equivalent of a 500-foot home run after not only coming out of said selection meeting with Quenton Nelson, Shaquille Leonard6, Braden Smith, and Nyheim Heins, but also squeezing three second-round picks out of the New York Jets in exchange for moving back three spots in the first round of in the same Draft, and still walking out with the guy they wanted all along (Nelson).
But since then, the Colts have all but struck out every time they’ve stepped up to the NFL Draft plate.
From the 2019 Draft onwards, the Colts have drafted one player who went on to make the Pro Bowl: Jonathan Taylor. Otherwise, Ballard’s drafts have been a combination of:
Thumbing their nose at consensus rankings in hopes of finding another Shaq Leonard-like steal, and reaching for guys with interesting but incomplete tool kits, like Ben Banogu and Bobby Okereke.
Taking swings on toolsy guys with a ton of polishing needed, like Rock Ya-Sin and Jacob Eason and Dayo Odeyingbo7
Being snake-bitten by career-altering injuries (Parris Campbell) and even early retirement (Khari Willis) from some of their most promising picks early-round picks.
Failing to develop any of their prime selections into true “blue chip” players; for example: the only player they’ve selected with a first round pick—defensive end Kwity Paye in 2021—has three more sacks in his career than Aidan Hutchinson recorded last Sunday alone.
And while Ballard has never been afraid to use his draft assets to acquire premium, “missing piece”-type players (he’s traded two first round draft picks in three years in exchange for guys like Wentz and DeForest Buckner), he will go out of his way to avoid making any big ticket splurges in free agency—almost to a fault.
That modus operandi, combined with the lack of impact from their draft picks, has resulted in some glaring deficiencies within the Indianapolis roster—specifically the aforementioned spots at wide receiver8 and offensive tackle. And hoping those situations would solve themselves through a combination of “next man up” and/or some magical coaching has gone about as well as you could expect.
As a result, the vitriol from fans towards Ballard for not equipping this team with the personnel it needs is only matched by their boiling frustration with Reich—specifically the sentiment that he’s ill-preparing the personnel he does have to work with.
What has to be frustrating for Colts’ fans is the fact that this coaching staff has done a less-than-ideal job in making use of whatever they do have on offense.
Michael Pittman Jr. has been great; no doubt about it. You can safely call him a top-25 receiver in the NFL, if not a top-20. But the entire offense can’t shut down just because he’s not on the field.
Except, that’s exactly what happened last Sunday in Jacksonville, when it was announced that Pittman would miss this game. The Jaguars devoted their entire game plan to stopping Jonathan Taylor, knowing that the Colts offense totally lacked any modicum of a “Plan B”—and it worked.
It’s no wonder Jonathan Taylor was visually livid during the beat down administered by Jacksonville; he didn’t get a lick of help from basically anyone around him—particularly the coaches, who are charged with putting their best players in position to succeed.
In a contest in which the Colts were basically in “throw out the playbook and just keep throwing the ball to get back in the game,” the coaching staff grossly underutilized Nyheim Hines—easily the team’s most dangerous pass-catcher besides Pittman and Taylor.
I thought tight end Mo Alie-Cox had a chance for a breakout season, with Matt Ryan at quarterback; after all, Tony Gonzalez routinely saw 100+ targets from Ryan each year, when the two were in Atlanta. Except Cox has all of three catches for 35 yards over the past two games.
And right now, throwing the football to wide receivers like Ashton Dulin and Dezmon Patmon, or second-year tight end Kylen Granson, just isn't cutting it.
Like any good coach, Reich is holding steady, telling anyone who’ll listen that his team is just a few tweaks away from where they need to be. But you have to wonder how much weight those words ultimately carry, coming out of a game in which Pederson absolutely pantsed Reich and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
The glass half full-types will quickly point out that we’re only two games into the season, so any rush to judgment—in either direction—is very premature. Plus, this is the same regime that turned a 1-5 start in 2018 into a 10-6 record at season’s end, as well as a 1-4 start into a 9-8 record at season’s end last year.
Those things may be true, and it still may not be time to hit the panic button just yet, it might be a good idea to know where the button is, and not stray too far from it just in case. Because after going winless in these first two games, there aren’t a ton of “gimmes” coming up between now and November.
First they have to weather the onslaught they might face from Kansas City on Sunday. They’ve got a home-and-home with Tennessee; divisional matchups are always that much tougher. Their Thursday night matchup on October 6th takes them to Denver, followed by a rematch against the Jaguars (who have beat the Colts in each of the last 8 games the teams have played each other).
And after that comes the pièce de résistance: when Carson Wentz returns to Indianapolis on October 30th, in his revenge game. If the Colts’ don’t figure out a bunch of answers really quickly, they could easily be staring down another lopsided win-loss record to start the season, with very few cushy spots in the second half of their schedule to make up that win total deficit.
That could make for a very uncomfortable situation for Ballard and Reich, particularly when they have to justify how this season went in their season-ending meeting with Jim Irsay.
There won’t be a lot they can say, considering the circumstances in which they got here aren’t really a mystery to anyone. But we will know one thing they can’t say, in trying to justify the Colts’ shortcomings—either to date, or for the remaining duration of the season.
This time, they can’t say “it was Carson Wentz’s fault.” ■
2022 NFL Picks — Week 3
My picks in bold
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington
Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis
Buffalo (-5) at Miami
Cincinnati (-6) at NY Jets
Baltimore (-2.5) at New England
Detroit at Minnesota (-6)
Las Vegas (-2) at Tennessee
New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina
Houston at Chicago (-3)
Jacksonville at LA Chargers (-7)
Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-1)
LA Rams (-3.5) at Arizona
Atlanta at Seattle (-1)
San Francisco (-1.5) at Denver
Dallas at NY Giants (-1) — no pick9
Last Week: 7-9
Season To Date: 17-14
Seriously: if you grew up watching football in the 1980’s through the early 1990’s, you absolutely have to go watch the “Elway for Marino” episode of ESPN’s 30 for 30. It’s absolutely riveting—and a masterclass in interpersonal management, understanding the pettiness of people in powerful positions, and how the most powerful people in an organization often tend to make the dumbest decisions (like Bob Irsay, in this case).
Yep, I still hate that I officially have to call them that.
I’m not bothering to count their scoreless overtime period against Houston, because anyone involved in that game—whether on the field or a spectator from afar—ended up as a loser.
Back in January, I made the mistake of tweeting out that I believed Reich was one of the 10 best coaches in the NFL. To be clear: the mistake wasn’t the fact that I tweeted it—it was that I did so about 24 hours after Indianapolis’ Week 18 loss to Jacksonville. Needs to say, Colts fans didn’t take to my notion very well
With his first-ever pick as General Manager of the Colts (in 2017), Ballard selected free safety Malik Hooker from Ohio State with the 15th overall pick—a player whom I was absolutely smitten by.
I had Hooker ranked as my #4 overall prospect in that Draft; I believed he could be an archetypal free safety and one of the very best at his position—which is why I once went as far as calling him the best safety prospect to enter the Draft since Ed Reed. I probably got waaaay too carried away with my affinity for him, considering the only safety prospect to enter the Draft since the turn of the century whom anyone should dare to mention in the same breath is Sean Taylor (God rest his soul).
Alas, between the multiple injuries he sustained prior to the start of his rookie season, combined with two catastrophic season-ending injuries during his first four seasons in the league, we never got close to seeing what he could become.
the player formerly known as Darius Leonard
In fairness, Dayo Odeyingbo is basically a rookie, with last year being something of a "medical redshirt" season after he tore his Achilles’ tendon while preparing for the 2021 NFL Draft.
Maybe now would be a good time for the general narrative of “LOL WENTZ STUNK IN INDIANAPOLIS!!” to factor in what Wentz had to work with (or total lack thereof) from a supporting cast perspective—especially given some of the potency he’s shown when throwing to the supporting cast he has in Washington.
I despise both teams—there aren’t two teams in the NFL that I hate more—and refuse to make a pick in this game, given that making a pick implies that I, even theoretically, would want one of these two teams to win.