The Next Step in Patrick Mahomes' Ascension
A victory in Super Bowl LVII will put the superstar in even more rarified air.
Apotheosis is an incredibly fun word… well, to me, anyway. Mostly because it’s one of those words that I like using to sound a lot smarter than I really am.
The dictionary definition of apotheosis reads: “the highest point in the development of something; culmination or climax.” But the term is more commonly used to describe when something has used it’s ultimate or perfect form—bordering on God-like, even (if not outright reaching it).
I won’t go as far doing something blasphemously silly as comparing Mahomes to the divine. Football is a child’s game, at the end of the day—even if the professionals who play it are paid upwards of hundreds of millions of dollars. But the level of play we’re witnessing from Patrick Mahomes is seeing the position played at a form that’s all but inaccessible to mere mortals.
It was already well established that Mahomes was the best and most valuable quarterback in the league. Between 2018 and 2021, Mahomes averaged 4,676 yards passing, 37 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions per season, while completing over 66.1% of his passes. That would be career-defining output for 98% of quarterbacks in NFL history—and Mahomes averaged that. And that’s not even mentioning his 49-13 record as a starter.
Even then, too many of us over-analyzed the meaning of Mahomes’ below-standard (for him) play in the first half of the 2021 season, combined with the fact that Kansas City traded away superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and feared that we might see the first signs of a regression from Mahomes in 2022.
Oh boy, were we wrong.
Let's put aside the 5,250 yards passing (4th highest total in NFL history), 41 touchdown passes, completion percentage of 67.1%, and 77.5 QBR (best in the NFL)
Let’s put aside that he was the only quarterback in the NFL who didn’t finish a single game in 2022 with a negative Expected Points Added (EPA)—meaning, since mid-September, Mahomes never had the proverbial ‘bad day at the office’ and needed his team to bail him out.
Let’s put aside the fact that Mahomes eradicated any narrative of being a ‘long ball artist’ who benefitted from the separation created by Tyreek Hill, so Mahomes by spending the entirety of this season wrecking opposing defenses with passes travelling under 10 air yards.
On top of all of those things, Mahomes’ work in 2022 was one of the most singularly dominant season-long performances by a quarterback that we’ve seen in years—evidenced by finishing with the highest EPA among anyone at his position since 2018.
Mahomes added the (theoretically) missing piece to his game—‘being better at being boring1’—alongside plenty of ‘vintage Mahomes’ things like throwing a jump pass down yards down the field (while the pocket collapses entirely around him) and placing it with pinpoint accuracy, into the hands of a receiver that was blanketed by a defensive back (among plenty of other examples2).
At this ‘Mahomes-ian’ level of play, the level of stress he creates on opponents is immeasurable. Forget about breaking the will of defenses by completing passes that nearly any other quarterback wouldn’t dare attempt. He even exerts bottom-of-the-Mariana-Trench levels of pressure on opposing offenses, forcing them to simultaneously play high stakes yet flawless football in order to simply keep up with the juggernaut that he represents.
There is a fitting passing of the torch for “best quarterback alive,” given Tom Brady’s retirement announcement3, juxtaposed with Mahomes’ ascension—even if Brady’s genius lied in his mastery of the details, while Mahomes’ genius lies in his mastery of coloring outside the lines.
Either way, with a win in Super Bowl LVII on Sunday4, Mahomes can firmly entrench himself in the pantheon of the greatest to ever play the game.
The scary thing is: he just turned 27 years old—meaning his ascension may not even be fully complete yet. ■
Steven Ruiz of TheRinger had a great writeup on this, which I highly recommend reading.
I’m sure it’s been said before, but: Mahomes is to the NFL what Stephen Curry is to the NBA: he redefines how we think of the previously understood geometry of the sport.
Fun fact: I wrote this sentence in my notebook in January of last year (2022)… funny how things worked out.
Yes, I realize I’m potentially setting up a massive jinx for Mahomes here; this column could look very silly come Monday morning. We’ve seen movies like this before —twice (or more), actually—like when the New York Giants shut down Tom Brady and New England’s offense in the Super Bowl. We also saw it when Tampa Bay came after Mahomes without relent, completely stalling Kansas City’s offense, in Super Bowl LV.
I don’t want to take anything away from the Eagles’ ability to rush four and drop seven, trusting that their defensive line can singlehandedly wreak havoc on opposing passers. Philadelphia’s ability to disrupt the timing and rhythm of Kansas City offense—specifically via their defensive line—will be the deciding factor in this game.
Otherwise, trying to bring exotic blitzes and/or sitting in 2-high coverage shells just don't work against Mahomes.