Scouting Profile: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Will he be able to translate his prolific career in college into success at the next level?
Height: 6’2 1/4”
Weight: 216lbs
Class: R-Senior
NFL Comparison: Shades of Geno Smith
Michael Penix Jr. started 45 games and threw 1,685 passing attempts during his six-year collegiate career, going 12-5 as a starter in his first four years at the University of Indiana, and then 25-3 during his two years at the University of Washington. He won the AP Comeback Player of the Year after the 2022 season, and the Maxwell Award after the 2023 season (best all-around college football player as voted by coaches and select media); he was also named a First-Team All-American after this past season.
You're definitely in for an entertaining outing when you watch Penix's film. The left-handed quarterback plays combines a composed and confident on-field demeanor with some genuine "wow" characteristics. His footwork on his release is a bit quirky, but at least it's consistent. There's a pronounced "does what he's supposed to do" element to his game, in terms of doing his best to put the ball in places his receivers can make a play on1. His pressure-to-sack ratio is eye-poppingly low. When opponents blitz him, he stays calm, reads the opening created by the blitz, and attacks the gap created by the vacated defender. And he can attack any opening in the defense because he has a genuine hose for an arm. His slingshot-ish delivery serves up passes in which the ball jumps out of his hand with velocity and RPMs. Said motion is smooth and effortless, and the result is a ball that gets down the field in a hurry; he can huck it 50+ yards down the field and make it look easy.
But "arm talent" doesn't mean anything if the ball doesn't go where you need it to go, when it needs to arrive there; that's one of the big drawbacks with Penix. Too many routine throws will paint every corner of the strike zone, even when his receivers are pretty open and the ball should be delivered between the numbers. Then again, there are just as many throws that are nowhere close to the strike zone2. He's the type of quarterback who'll badly miss a frustratingly easy pass and follow it up with an absolute dime of a throw -- but you're not really sure when he's going to do either. He struggled on intermediate middle-of-field throws (10-22 yards down the field)3. Too many of his throws were "toss it up and hope the WR makes a big play" attempts, which he got away with because of the talents of Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan4. Holistically, it feels like a lot of his passes were pre-determined or one read and throw, or maybe primary read then a check down/safety valve. He stares down his reads a lot, giving ample chances for defenders to break up the pass or converge on the receiver as the throw arrives.
And then, there's the medical history; Penix suffered four different season-ending injuries during his four years at Indiana:
he tore his ACL in his right knee in 2018, early in his true freshman season,
he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury midway through the 2019 season
he re-tore his right ACL late in the 2020 season.
he had another season-ending shoulder joint separation in his throwing shoulder in 2021
One of those is cause for pause. Two of those are cause for serious concern. Four in four years? That's flirting with DEFCON 1 from a scouting perspective.
By all accounts, Penix is a great teammate (he had the name of every one of his Huskies' teammates inscribed of the suit jacket he wore to the Heisman Trophy ceremony). He's shown perseverance and grit, given what he's been through and where he's ended up after all of that. He was exceptional in interviews with NFL teams. There's is undoubtedly a lot to like about him, both as a person and as a prospect.
But in a world in which more than 60% of the top quarterback prospects really fail to "make it" professionally, there's are an alarming number of stones on the scale tipping towards the "great in college but didn't make it in the NFL side."
I'm certainly not rooting for him to fail; I'd be happy to end up incorrect in my final assessment. But it's going to take a very special and specialized set of circumstances for that to happen -- which would be an outlier from the norm. ■
As one AFC executive said: "if a guy's open, he's going to find him."
He has his share of throws that are the baseball equivalent of wild pitches that end up hitting someone eating their hot dog in the third row of the stands.
All of whom appear on my final Top 78 Big Board for the 2024 NFL Draft.