Scouting Profile: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
The sky is the limit for the University of North Carolina product... if the team that drafts him gives him the time to reach that potential
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 230lbs
Class: Redshirt Sophomore
NFL Comparison: Reckless Trevor Lawrence
Among all the quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, Drake Maye from the University of North Carolina1 is unquestionably the one who fits the archetype of “what would your ideal QB prospect look like if you could mold him out of clay.” His combination of size, arm strength, passing acumen, athletic ability, between-the-ears makeup, and overall intangibles is why you see the word "prototype" in damn near every scouting report you read about him.
There is undoubtedly a ton to like about Maye’s game. When he's in rhythm, he’ll remain balanced on his feet in the pocket, and work through his progressions. He has a really good knack for using his eyes to hold defensive backs and open up underneath passing routes, and/or to look off the safety to ensure he can attack single-coverage down the field.
On shorter-to-immediate passes, Maye can be very good at placing throws in such a way that only his receivers can go make a play on it. But when Maye really lets it rip, he delivers rockets all over the field, showing legitimate "attack any blade of grass anywhere on a given play" arm strength. His deep ball placement is often a thing of beauty, and it’s made even more aesthetically pleasing by the fact that he delivers those deep shots with such ease2. Only two other quarterback prospects in the past decade delivered more “big time throws” than Maye.
Maye is equally dangerous when making plays on the move (if not more so). I really like how he keeps his eyes downfield even as the pocket collapses around him, preferring to make a pass versus immediately running with the ball. Has a good internal clock, as far as when to stay in the pocket and keep scanning, and when to eject. When he does ejects from the pocket, he’ll still direct traffic downfield, and then deliver one of those improvisational strikes down the field that break the will of opposing defenses; his arm strength allows him to deliver perfectly placed throws into small windows when throwing on the run3, even when throwing across his body.
As a runner/scrambler, Maye is plenty comfortable; he ran the ball almost 300 times over the past two seasons at UNC, picking up over 1,100 yards rushing and tallying 13 rushing touchdowns. No quarterback in this Draft picked up more first downs in 3rd and 4th down situations with his legs than Maye4. He’s not overly quick or shifty as a runner because of his size, but he does have a little shake-and-bake in the open field.
You might’ve noticed that one of the ‘quarterback prototype’ traits I didn’t mention in regards to Maye was accuracy. From a purely statistical standpoint, his intermediate accuracy and success % are red flags.
But I’d be remiss to not mention the fact that Maye’s supporting cast at UNC did him almost no favors. He was constantly throwing while under duress, which obviously can lead to errant passes. And even when his line did hold up on protection, Maye's receivers ‘rewarded’ him with a brutal number of inexcusable drops. There were countless passes that were perfectly delivered by Maye, hitting his receivers cleanly in their chest or hands, only to be flat-out dropped. It was downright aggravating to watch Maye’s film/highlights sometimes, because of how badly he was let down by his receivers.
With that being said, Maye’s accuracy questions/concerns were not entirely attributable to his butterfingered pass catchers. He can definitely be all over in the strike zone, even on routine passes; put another way, he will sometimes flat-out miss on the easy throws. One thing you notice about him is that he often throws to open spots based on where a receiver should be, which can result in wild misses if the receiver got jammed up or slowed down by defensive backs.
That also brings us to Maye’s timing and anticipation, which are definitely areas requiring further development.
His decision-to-release velocity is longer than what you’d like to see—something we absolutely said about another UNC quarterback of recent memory5. It feels like he’s unnecessarily elongating his time in the pocket. There are so many instances in which he hits his back foot in his drop, shuffles for a full second to second-and-a-half, and then releases. Whether it’s waiting for someone to get open, or needing to "see things open" before throwing, you really wish he wouldn’t hold on to the ball so long, and instead just let it rip.
As far as Maye’s anticipation (or perhaps his lack thereof), as mentioned: you definitely get a recurring sense that Maye is waiting to throw to an open receiver versus ‘throwing the receiver open;’ you tend to see it more obviously on in-breaking routes in particular. The thing is, he got away with that a ton in college because of his arm strength, because he knew he could deliver a fastball and get the pass in just before the window closed—but that window closes a lot faster in the NFL than it does in college, and he won’t be able to get away with that same split-second hesitation and overcompensation6.
There are other areas to nitpick at Maye’s game. He can be a bit of a "first-read decision-maker,” largely because of the RPO-heavy scheme in which he played in college. He has some of the classic bad habits of howitzer-armed quarterbacks, including put too much heat on the routine swing or dump-off passes, or attempting ill-advised hero ball throws. He pats the ball before he throws it, which is an annoying tell. His footwork can sometimes be all over the place, knowing he has the arm talent leading to make some ridiculous throws from awkward positions. There’s also his penchant for falling backwards/fadeaway passes, which he simply cannot rely upon at the next level. When he’s scrambling, he has to get better about sliding; he runs like an angry moose on a busy freeway, which just opens himself to getting hurt.
Make no mistake: though the list of weaknesses or negatives in Maye’s profile may be as long (or longer) than his strengths/positives, there's a good reason — or plenty of good reasons, actually7 — why Maye is almost-unanimously considered to be one of the top 3 or 4 players in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The biggest thing you should walk away with is that Maye is the type of foundational cornerstone you can build your offense upon—if not your entire team. Again, his physical and football toolkits—textbook size, massive frame, ample athleticism, explosive arm, natural feel for the position, innate competitiveness—are just too tantalizing. He’s the type of player who can develop into baseball’s equivalent of an ace pitcher: anytime he’s out there, you know you have a chance to win the game. Though the comparisons to Justin Herbert (and Trevor Lawrence) are thrown about, Maye’s ceiling is terrifying close to a Josh Allen-type of player: someone who can go full Thanos and say “Fine, I’ll do it myself”—followed by putting the entire offense on his back and wrecking the opposing defense singlehandedly.
Apropos of the comparisons to Allen (or even Lawrence), though, is the simple fact that it’s going to take time for Maye to reach his true potential. A lot of time, even. We didn’t see Allen go supernova until his third year in the league. Three years in, Lawrence is still on the precipice of that leap8. Point being: neither of those guys took “the CJ Stroud route to immediate stardom”—and it’s very unlikely that Maye would, either. You have to look at Maye’s selection the way NBA teams select top lottery prospects: you can’t focus on what he is/isn’t right now; you need to take into account what he can/will be two or three years from now.
If Maye is placed into a team that provides him with the infrastructure, coaching, supporting cast, and—most importantly—time and patience that’s so critical to the development of an NFL quarterback, he absolutely has the potential to reward them by become one of the premier players at his position in the league. ■
Interesting sliding doors moment(s): In the summer of 2019, Maye gave an early verbal commitment to play for Alabama (when he was still a rising senior). But after Bryce Young flipped his commitment from USC to Alabama, Maye changed course himself, opting for UNC over ‘Bama. Fast forward a few years later, and after Young left Alabama for the NFL Draft last spring, there were rumblings that Alabama would try and convince Maye to leave Chapel Hill and and compete for the recently-vacated quarterback spot in Tuscaloosa (which, of course, was eventually awarded to Jalen Milroe).
If you want specific examples, go back and watch 1) the 57-yard pass against Miami in 2023 that he dropped into the hands of a well-covered receiver, and/or 2) the 40-yard fall-away pass against Clemson in 2023 delivered with perfect placement.
h/t to Dane Brugler for that stat.
Yes, Washington fans, I’m talking about Sam Howell.
There were multiple instances even in college in which leading Maye’s delay between processing and delivering allowed defenders to jump passing lanes.
Credit to NoFlagsFilm on Twitter for the embedded highlight video.
In fairness to Lawrence, he deserves a mulligan for everything he had to endure during his rookie season.