Chicago Has One Option At #1 Overall In The 2023 NFL Draft
The have only one legitimate course of action with the first overall pick—and it doesn't involve trading their current QB.
Count me among the people dreading the next three months of (ultimately pointless) discussion about whether the Chicago Bears should use the #1 overall pick on a quarterback, as a replacement for Justin Fields.
Just so we’re abundantly clear: Fields is a better and more talented quarterback prospect than any of the guys in the 2023 NFL Draft.
He’s bigger, stronger, and faster than Bryce Young.
He’s a more polished and more accurate passer than Will Levis.
He’s more dynamic, and can do far more damage outside the construct of a play, than CJ Stroud.
Meaning there is no incentive nor sound logic for the Bears to jettison a commodity with which they’re already familiar (that includes all the positives and not-as-positives pertaining to Fields1), in exchange for a for a totally unknown (and lesser talented) commodity—especially when the price of the exchange would involve an asset as valuable as the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Instead, the Bears find themselves in position to provide Fields with two of the most important things a young quarterback needs to succeed in the NFL: stability, and a supporting cast.
The stability will come in the form of staying in the same offensive system for the second year in a row (assuming Chicago retains Luke Getsy at offensive coordinator). You cannot overstate the importance of such continuity; going into Year 2 of the same offense is a huge juncture for any NFL quarterback, particularly one who is still mastering the nuances of playing in the NFL in general.
And anyone who watched the Bears this past season knows that it’s imperative that the team to devotes as much resources as possible towards providing Fields with the support he needs—given that Fields had as barren as a support system last year as any quarterback in the NFL. Chortle all you want about Fields resembling a glorified running back after running for over 1,000 yards this season, lest we forget that Fields effectively had to function as the entirety of the Bears' offense last season.
So again, the only reason Justin Fields name should be brought up in tandem with Chicago’s pick at #1 overall should be pertaining to how the Bears can use that pick to build a team around him.
And the best way for them to do that is to trade down from #1 overall.
For all intents and purposes, the two best players in the 2023 NFL Draft appear to be edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. from the University of Alabama and defensive tackle Jalen Carter from the University of Georgia. Those two guys are are in a tier of their own, among the prospects in this year’s Draft, with a substantive drop off after said tier.
But even assuming either of them turn into cornerstone-type NFL players, the simple fact is that the Bears don’t have the luxury of using that pick on just one guy. Yes, while edge rusher and even interior defensive lineman represent foundational positions for an NFL team, the Bears desperately need an influx of talent at literally every other position on the team except quarterback2. Getting more picks (and hitting on them) is the most realistic way to give this roster the transfusion of talent it needs3.
If the Bears were to trade down from #1, at minimum, they would likely pick up a first, second, and third round pick this year, plus a first and fourth in 2024, in exchange for #1 overall4; again, that's at minimum.
The importance of Chicago getting more picks in the Draft s further exacerbated by the (highly irresponsible) trade for wide receiver Chase Claypool. Chicago effectively sent Pittsburgh a first round pick in exchange for Claypool; the Steelers got #33 overall (the first pick in the second round), but since Miami has to forfeit their first round pick, that makes the pick a top 32 selection. That was a premium price Chicago could not afford to pay, particularly when you look at their return on investment5. Sure, Chicago still has a second round pick at #56 overall (which they got in exchange for sending linebacker Roquan Smith to Baltimore), but a team as talent-starved as the Bears simply cannot enter the 2023 NFL Draft with only one pick among the first 50 selections.
So it absolutely behooves the Bears to trade down from #1, and cash in on the bounty of picks they'd likely receive in return. The current Bears regime has plenty of work to do, thanks to the (mis)management of their predecessors. This year’s Draft is particularly rich in "Day 2” talent at wide receiver6, offensive tackle, and pretty much everywhere on along the front seven on defense—areas of particularly glaring need for the Bears. Why wouldn’t Chicago want to give themselves as many opportunities to shore up those needs?
The last thing Chicago needs to do is create more work for themselves, in the form of taking the positives from the 2022 season, effectively hitting the reset button by drafting a quarterback to replace Justin Fields7, and kicking the can on the team’s rebuilding effort even further—especially considering they currently own an asset that can potentially allow them to take a quantum leap forward in rebuilding their team, assuming they make the right decision with how they use that pick. ■
I’m clearly more bullish on Fields than many others who don’t consider themselves to be a fan of the Chicago Bears. Those who don’t share my bullishness can/will point to things like Fields’ not-so-flattering advanced analytics as a passer. I’d counter that, even if it’s just by using the eyeball test, there is no denying that there’s a latent ability for him to become just as dangerous when throwing the football. Put more simply: he’s too damn talented. In that regard, there have been fascinating debates on social media about Fields’ trajectory over his first two years, compared to the trajectories of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts—and just how valid the comparison of their respective trajectories really are.
I went back and forth regarding running back being a position of need for Chicago. Khalil Herbert was wonderful this season. But if the Bears don’t re-sign David Montgomery in the offseason, I’m not sure they can put all their chips on Trestan Ebner (their 6th round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft) as Herbert’s full-time partner—particularly as NFL teams increasingly move to a tag team approach at the running back position.
Even as someone who firmly believes “you don't trade paper for coins” (credit to Bill Simmons for that metaphor), I still think Chicago’s ideal course of action is to trade down from #1 overall pick and get more picks. The Bears’ roster is a mess, and General Manager Ryan Poles is going to need all the help he can get to clean up the mess left by Ryan Pace.
Among my many peeves of NFL fans is when a given fan of a given team screams in disbelief that their favorite team didn’t trade down in the Draft—conveniently forgetting that a trade down involves finding a partner who is willing to pay the price to trade up from their spot. Trading up to #1, in particular, is inordinately pricey. But the early scuttlebutt points to Indianapolis and Carolina as two particular teams with legitimate interest in trading up to #1 overall, and there’s always the potential for a dark horse trade partner emerging as well.
In the seven games he played after arriving Chicago, Claypool recorded 14 catches for 140 yards, and zero touchdowns. He averaged 20 receiving yards per game. ProFootballFocus ranked Claypool as the 99th best receiver in the NFL—effectively meaning that he would be no better than the 4th best wide receiver on any given team in the league.
I know I just got done slamming the Bears for trading Draft capital in exchange for a wide receiver, but this regime has to go and do whatever it takes to get Fields and true #1 wide receiver via the trade market, rather than picking one in the Draft and waiting (or hoping) for him to develop.
If what we’ve seen this season has shown us anything, it’s the value of a game-changing wide receiver for a younger quarterback’s development. Look at what A.J. Brown did for Jalen Hurts and Tyreek Hill for Tua Tagovailoa. You could say the same for Ja’Marr Chase with Joe Burrow and even Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen from the previous couple of seasons.
And yes, I know that “trading for a superstar wide receiver” is a lot easier said than done, but how many people would’ve predicted at this time last year that guys like Hill, Brown, and Davante Adams would change teams? Clearly, weird shit can happen in the NFL offseason. That’s not even mentioning the fact that there’s already one star receiver (very likely) on the market: DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona. If I’m Chicago, I would throw my current 2nd and 3rd round picks at the Cardinals to see if I could pry Hopkins away from there—without a single moment of hesitation.
Once again, I cannot emphasize how much I’m dreading the endless “should the Bears trade Justin Fields?” hot takes and clickbait stemming from the needlessly long morning sports talk shows that will transpire over the next three-and-a-half months.
And while we’re on the topic of complete hacks on sports talk television: former NFL General Manager Mike Tannenbaum ranks near the very top of my list. He was a trash GM, and he’s brought his trash viewpoints to ESPN. He’s one of the guys whom you should listen to, and be assured that the exact opposite of what he says is true.