Atlanta's Intriguing Options At #8 Overall
The Falcons could choose from several quality players, at key positions of need, with their top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
With a top 10 selection in the NFL Draft for the third year in a row1, the Atlanta Falcons represent an underrated nexus point in this year’s selection meeting.
Seemingly set to enter the season with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder under center, the current thinking is that the Falcons will use their top selection (#8 overall) to upgrade the defense—a group that was lousy against the run in 2022, and downright terrible against the pass2. The presumption that they’d most likely use said selection, specifically, on an edge rusher or a cornerback, shouldn’t come as much of a surprise then—particularly since this Draft is rich in upper-end talent at both of those positions.
Atlanta is also now in an interesting spot, in that they can sit back and let the best available player fall to their pick. During their quietly busy offseason, Atlanta added David Onyemata and Calais Campbell along the defensive line, and more recently, acquired cornerback Jeff Okudah from the Detroit Lions. None of those are franchise-altering additions, but they give the Falcons at least some flexibility in not being forced to draft at a specific position since they have nobody there.
Let’s assume that 1) the first five picks are comprised of three quarterbacks (CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson) plus the mostly-consensus top defensive prospects (Will Anderson and Jalen Carter), and 2) there are no trades among the top 7 picks.
At #6 overall, Detroit is in a similar situation as Atlanta, in that they filled a lot of needs via free agency, giving them the flexibility to take the best player available—though they’d likely prioritize cornerback, edge rusher, and the interior offensive line spots. At least as of current thinking, we could pencil in a cornerback here—like Devon Witherspoon from Illinois)
At #7 overall, Las Vegas might decide that defensive end Tyree Wilson is the best player available (and take him here) or give a much needed boost to their secondary by taking cornerback Christian Gonzalez from Oregon3.
That effectively gives Atlanta the option of using their pick on the guy whom the Raiders don’t take at #7 overall—and either one of those would still address a position of (relative) need. And if neither Wilson nor Gonzalez are taken at #7 overall, the Falcons would be in position to choose between two of the most highly-coveted defensive prospects in the Draft.
But let’s say that Detroit takes Wilson at #6 overall and Las Vegas takes Gonzalez at #7 overall. The Falcons could take Witherspoon (if they really like him here), or move on to the next best available edge rusher (defensive end Myles Murphy fits the profile of the player they’d like to add), or even take a long-term view with this pick and use it on offensive lineman Peter Skoronski from Northwestern4.
And none of this even touches on the under-the-radar (yet very plausible) scenario that the Falcons use their top pick on a wide receiver. Say what you will about the fact that Atlanta took pass catchers with their first round pick in each of the last two drafts; since Arthur Smith has decided to turn tight end Kyle Pitts into a glorified decoy5, the Falcons are one injury away from Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller being Atlanta’s top receiving options. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba from Ohio State would be a very natural fit for Atlanta, even if taking him at #8 overall feels a bit too rich6.
With Chicago and Seattle and Detroit (and Arizona and Las Vegas) understandably being the teams with the most buzz around them, it's not hard to see why Atlanta is getting overlooked in much of the discussion pertaining to the Draft.
But given the options likely available to them when they’re on the board, what the Falcons do exactly two weeks from today could add a ton of intrigue to a Draft that looks increasingly like it’ll go much differently than what we’re predicting. ■
This is the 5th-straight year that Atlanta will be picking in the top half of the Draft—and none of those came as a result of the Falcons trading up.
The Falcons ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA in 2022, with opposing quarterbacks averaging a 95.7 passer rating when playing against them (4th-highest in the NFL).
Early teaser/spoiler of sorts: I’m working on a personal ‘Big Board’ that I plan to publish very shortly before the Draft… and I’ve got Christian Gonzalez rated very, very highly on said board. That dude is a DUDE.
Skoronski would immediately upgrade a trouble spot for Atlanta at left guard, and give them a potential option as their left tackle of the future; the Falcons will likely have to start thinking about Jake Matthews replacement as early as next offseason.
I understand that Kyle Pitts only played in 10 games last year. But even if you project his stats over the course of a 17-game season, that would've translated to 100 targets, 48 receptions, 605 yards, and 3 touchdowns. I'll concede that 100 targets would've been 5th-most among tight ends. But 48 receptions still would've put him outside the top 15 among tight ends last year, the 605 yards receiving would be a below-pedestrian total for someone of Pitts’ caliber, and the target-to-catch rate of 48% would've been WELL below the average among the top 10 tight ends in the NFL last year (67.8%).
Atlanta has five picks in the first four rounds... and then only two more picks in the 7th round after that. Translation: it shouldn’t be a surprise if they traded back from #8. What if a team like Tennessee or the Jets or even Pittsburgh decides they want to move up and grab an offensive lineman of their liking, before the likely run on offensive linemen that’ll take place between Chicago’s pick at #9 and Washington’s pick at #16? It wouldn’t be very surprising if Atlanta traded down even into the late teens and still had the opportunity to take Smith-Njigba.