Welcome to this debut edition of the “7-Point Stance” newsletter column — which not-at-all-coincidentally is being published the week of the 2022 NFL Draft.
This format is effectively the predecessor to a bit I used to call “the SemiColumn” — a play on the idea that it’s not quite a column, and it’s stuff broken up in a way akin to using a semicolon.
As the name would imply, these columns will be 6 random but thematic thoughts that are a bit more long-form (not but quite long-form enough to stand on their own), with the 7th thought — operating kind of like the point after touchdown and heretofore referred to as “shovel passes” — being another quick (seven) shorter-form random (but still topical) and fleeting thoughts
And given that we’re only days away from the NFL Draft, I thought this format was the best way to summarize everything I’ve been reading, hearing, and thinking about, leading into Thursday evening.
Here’s the rundown for this edition:
The Front-Runner For Washington’s Pick At #11
The “Other” Front-Runner For Washington’s Pick At #11
Two Roads To Navigate For The Detroit Lions At #2 Overall
Which Duo Will The New York Jets Select With Their Picks?
I Still Believe Kenny Pickett Gets Picked By Carolina At #6
Which Need Does Atlanta Address At #8?
Shovel Passes
Away we go…
The Front-Runner For Washington’s Pick At #11
If I had to bet the mortgage on whom I believe will be drafted by Washington at #11 overall this Thursday (assuming that the Commanders — yes, I still hate calling them that — don't trade out of this pick), I believe the selection will be wide receiver Chris Olave from Ohio State.
This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to Washington's moves in the pre-Draft process; there are ample breadcrumbs connecting the team to the player. But one thing that really caught my attention: in a recent episode of the John Keim podcast (note: anybody who considers themselves a Washington fan really should be listening to his podcast), Keim — who's mentioned Washington's connection to Olave several times — went as far as saying he believes Washington's internal rankings could have Olave ranked ahead of his Ohio State teammate, Garrett Wilson (the latter of whom basically everyone on NFL Draft internet considers to be WR1 or WR2 alongside Drake London from USC).
In my mind, I believe a lot of Washington's interest in Olave stems from two particular factors. For one, Olave is one of the best vertical threats in this Draft. Carson Wentz, the team's new quarterback, is known for his aggressive, down-the-field playing style. He would be the type of quarterback who could help unlock Olave's talents very early on in the latter's career. Secondly, given the amount of pressure this regime faces in justifying their acquisition of Wentz, it wouldn't be surprising that they select a player with the goal of giving Wentz the best chance to succeed.
However, personally speaking, I think taking Olave with the 11th overall pick is just a bit too rich. The smartest NFL teams take the best player available when it's time to make their pick, and let everything else work itself out. I don't believe Washington would be doing that. Rather, it feels like they're trying too hard to fix a perceived need.
In terms of the player himself, while Olave has the talent to develop as a more diverse receiver, he feels a bit too one-dimensional to me (at least as of right now). I think his lack of bulk (he's listed at 188lbs) is another cause for concern. For all of his statistical accomplishments (his 36 career receiving touchdowns is the highest total in school history), there are some questions as to whether Olave was able to feast against defenses in the Big 10, who had to choose between giving up yards to him or any of Ohio State's other supremely-talented receivers. Further, Olave is also a well-below-average run blocker, which is a trait not shared by most of the receivers currently on Washington's roster.
But, if the Commanders' staff sees Olave in a different light than I do, then it's very likely they'll take him at #11. I don't think they can risk trading down to get him, as many people believe he wouldn't make it past the middle of the first round; picks #15 through #22 feature receiver-hungry teams like New Orleans, New England, and Green Bay. And it would be very tricky for Washington to find a trade partner at just the right spot in that range, where they could walk away with him.
That's why, when you boil it all down, I think Chris Olave will be the pick at #11... at least as of right now.
The “Other” Front-Runner For Washington’s Pick At #11
I do think there's a universe in which Washington uses the #11 pick on free safety Kyle Hamilton from Notre Dame.
However, that would require a few things. First, Hamilton would have to fall out of the top 10 picks. Such a notion felt pretty preposterous early in the pre-Draft process, but actually seems very realistic at least as of the time of this posting. It would also assume Washington doesn't end up trading out of the #11 pick; I think they would seriously consider trading back in the first round, if it meant picking up some Day 2 picks. They'd have some interesting options along the offensive line and in the secondary to choose from (and/or maybe a wide receiver who takes a surprising slide), if they do trade back in the first round. But, as previously mentioned, that trade back is much easier said than done in a Draft that's rich in depth but thin in top-end talent.
And, of course, that would also mean that Chris Olave is off the board, or that the team falls more in love with someone else — ie, Kyle Hamilton — between now and next Thursday.
That very last part isn't entirely out of the question. The local scribes have pointed out that the Commanders would be very excited to pick him there, particularly because of the positional versatility he would bring (a characteristic that's highly prized by this regime). At 6'4" and 220lbs, Hamilton is basically a cagey pterodactyl masquerading as unicorn-like "chess piece" to deploy in the secondary of his future NFL employer. The combination of his football acumen, fluidity, faster-than-his-stopwatch speed (people have recorded his 40-yard dash time anywhere from 4.59 to somewhere in the 4.7 range), and untapped physical potential (he won't turn 22 until after his rookie season is complete) gives him the potential to be effective as a free safety, strong safety, buffalo nickel linebacker, boundary corner, or even a slot corner lined up against an opponent's "move" or "F" tight end.
If the Commanders were to select him, they would have the luxury of not forcing him to play big minutes right away, yet simultaneously having a succession plan at the free safety position if/when the team moves on from Bobby McCain (for the record: I absolutely believe he could be the true "centerfield" free safety this team has sorely lacked for years). As Keim pointed out recently: Washington played with less than three linebackers on the field in nearly 2/3rds of all defensive snaps. That means the coaching staff could use Hamilton as their 'fifth man' in the secondary, potentially even starting him out in the buffalo nickel spot now open after Landon Collins' departure.
Again, I still believe that Washington's preferred modus operandi would be 1) a slight trade down in Round 1; or 2) stay put and take Olave. In other words, Hamilton does feel something like "Plan C" for them.
But as their second fallback option, it's still a damn intriguing one (at least to me).
Two Roads To Navigate For The Detroit Lions At #2 Overall
Borrowing a clutch phrase yet again from my buddy Pat: two things can be true at the same time. In this case, when it comes to the Detroit Lions and the #2 overall pick in the Draft, I think both of the following are true:
Detroit will probably use this pick to select the best available defensive end/pass rusher.
The rumors about the Lions using the #2 pick on a quarterback should be taken seriously.
Regarding the first point: the Lions’ beat reporters have speculated that the team would be more inclined to take an edge rusher over a quarterback at #2. Much of that stemmed from Lions' General Manager Brad Holmes indicating that the team wants (and needs) an instant "game-changer" with this pick. Using this pick on someone like Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux would fit that goal (for the record: I think a lot of the pre-Draft narrative surrounding Thibodeaux's motor/passion/"love of football" is a bunch of nonsense), especially for a team that didn't have a single defensive lineman register more than two sacks last year.
Regarding the latter point: I've believed, from the get-go, that Detroit would walk out of the first round of this year's Draft with a quarterback. I just thought they would use the latter of their two picks in round one on that position — either taking someone at #32 overall, or using one of their extra 3rd round picks to move up a bit from this spot to get someone.
But now, you simply can't ignore the "Malik Willis to Detroit" buzz, particularly after Willis' Pro Day on March 22nd. The Lions got a first-hand view of the way Willis operates when they coached him at the 2022 Senior Bowl, and were reportedly impressed by the way Willis retained and executed the key elements of the offensive scheme they installed there. In a Draft that's painfully thin on quarterback talent, Willis is easily the most physically gifted guy at his position.
More importantly, you have to look at the bigger picture for Detroit. If they haven't come to the conclusion yet (and I'd bet good money they have), they quickly will: incumbent Jared Goff isn't a quarterback who can put the team on his shoulders and carry them to wins. Willis does have that type of potential, even if it will take a substantive amount of time to harness it.
There would even be a clean succession plan available for the Lions. Detroit could part ways with Goff next offseason, saving more than $25.6 million under the cap (while eating "only" $15M in total dead money between 2023 and 2024). The Lions are one of those teams that has the luxury of being able to wait; nobody realistically expects them to compete for anything in their second year of (yet another) rebuild. So they could let Goff play out what would effectively be his last year in Detroit, while letting Willis sit behind Goff for the year (and maybe/likely sprinkling in some playing time for Willis through the course of the season). Such a "redshirt" year for Willis could be invaluable for someone who needs as much development as probably any quarterback in this year's class.
But taking Willis at #2 means the Lions would be foregoing taking one dollar today, with the hopes of getting back five dollars. NFL teams often don't see things that way. For a team with as many needs as Detroit, not using this pick to fill a massive need could be a hard sell... unless they really believe Willis is the dude that can be their guy for the next decade-plus.
Which Duo Will The New York Jets Select With Their Picks?
The fact that the New York Jets have the #4 and #10 picks in the upcoming Draft inherently makes them one of the most interesting teams to watch in the first round (if not the entire Draft overall), especially when you juxtapose it with the fact that they have another three selections among the top 70 picks even after their two picks in the top 10). What's even more interesting is the fact that, from everything you read and hear, they'll probably end up making both of those picks, as opposed to trying to trade back from either of them (particularly from #10).
So then, what will they do with those picks?
At #4, my current best guess is that they'll take the best available edge rusher, assuming that one of Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and/or Travon Walker are available. As of today, if I had to make a prediction today regarding the first three picks in the Draft, I think they would be Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Evan Neal. So in that scenario, I believe the Jets would take Walker. What if Detroit takes Walker at #2 and Thibodeaux slips to #4? I think the Jets would be more than happy to take the latter.
Between what the local beat reporters covering the team have been saying, combined with General Manager Joe Douglas indicating the team is operating under the assumption that Mekhi Becton and George Fant will be the team's starting offensive tackles come opening day, it sounds increasingly like the Jets would consider it a win if they were to get one of the top three edge-rushing prospects in the Draft with their first pick, as opposed to using such a prime selection to bolster a not-as-bad-as-you-think offensive line.
At #10 overall, the Jets' plans seem similarly simple: get a wide receiver. Lest you have any doubts regarding their motivation, don't forget that New York pursued Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, and DK Metcalf this offseason; they even sniffed around on A.J. Brown, except Tennessee basically hung up on them right before handing Brown a contract extension. Having struck out in all of those efforts, it sounds like they'll focus on using #10 overall to get that receiver they've been chasing... presuming, of course, that they don't strike a pre-Draft deal to acquire disgruntled "wide back" Deebo Samuel in exchange for this pick.
Which receiver would they pick? It depends on who's available, obviously. At pick #8 Atlanta is very much focused on upgrading their current group of wide receivers, with USC's Drake London being someone who would fit the profile of an ideal receiver in Arthur Smith's offense (more on that shortly). The New York Giants at pick #7 is another situation to watch. Everyone thinks they'll prioritize a lineman or a defensive back, but people I trust have said that wide receiver remains a wild card for them, especially given Kenny Golladay's bloated contract and Kadarius Toney going out of his way to burn the bridge with yet another regime. That's also assuming that New York keeps this pick, and doesn't trade back with a team looking to leapfrog Atlanta at #8; more on that later also.
Putting it simply: I think if Drake London and Garrett Wilson were somehow both available at #10, they'd prefer London; he'd provide an element of size that the Jets' current group of receivers lacks. If London is gone but Wilson is available, they'd still be happy to take the latter (and vice versa, of course). What happens if both of them are gone? For what it's worth, a lot of people have paired the Jets with Alabama's Jameson Williams, though I'm not sure I buy that speculation, personally.
Regardless, if the Jets can walk away with a stud pass-rushing prospect and an impact wide receiver prospect with their two selections in the top 10, it sounds like they would view that as a very successful first day of the NFL Draft.
I Still Believe Kenny Pickett Gets Picked By Carolina At #6
If I had to bet on one quarterback being taken among the top 10 picks, my current wager would be on the Carolina Panthers taking Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett with the 6th overall pick.
The Panthers' interest in the quarterbacks of the 2022 NFL Draft has been described as "very public" and "almost too over the top" by the team's beat reporters. That comes as a result of the team striking out on acquiring their preferred options at the position since David Tepper assumed ownership of the team. Such (failed) pursuits included Matthew Stafford vetoing a deal that Detroit and Carolina had effectively consummated, Deshaun Watson rejecting Carolina as one his preferred destinations, and even Mitch Trubisky saying "thanks but no thanks."
Tepper wants the team to have an answer in place for the position effective immediately, and I think they'll translate that commandment into (over)drafting someone with their first-round pick. And I feel pretty comfortable that they'd choose Pickett to be that answer, even in a scenario in which Malik Willis is still on the board when they pick.
Why Pickett? I've already discussed the connection between him and head coach Matt Rhule. The team could sell everyone on the prevailing notion that Pickett is the "most pro-ready" quarterback of the group. But most importantly, at least to me: Tepper is a University of Pittsburgh alum. Never underestimate how much of an NFL team owner's decisions are based on nothing that have to do with football. Even if Carolina's scouting department doesn't believe Pickett is worth a top-10 pick, this absolutely feels like a situation in which an impatient owner is going to override whatever the rest of his staff tells him.
From a personal standpoint, I would want nothing to do with Pickett at any pick in the first round. He has a B- athletic skillset (that might be generous), all of one season with quality production in college, and a little bit of the yips because of playing behind bad offensive lines his first couple of years at Pittsburgh.
I like that he visibly understands what he's seeing from an opposing defense in his pre-snap motions, shows sound mechanics when he's standing in the pocket, and plays with a bit of an edge.
But the truth is: he's a quarterback that'll give you the chance to win when things are going well for him and his surrounding situation. He is NOT a quarterback who's going to wreck the opposing defense by himself and keep opposing defensive coordinators sleepless in the days leading up to the game. He just isn't. If I had to come up with a professional comparison for Pickett, I'd put him somewhere between "a poor man's Derek Carr" and "a slightly thicker Kirk Cousins." That's not the type of ceiling you want to hear about a quarterback in whom your team is investing a top-10 Draft selection.
Yet Pickett is going to end up being taken very early on -- I think him being taken at #6 is as close to a "write it in Sharpie" pick as any pick after Jacksonville at #1 overall -- because of an artificially inflated draft valuation, caused by the dearth of quarterback talent in this year's Draft (though a healthy swath of groupthink has certainly contributed as well). I know some believe that Carolina could trade back a few picks in the first round yet still remain in position to take Pickett.
And trust me, I’ve heard all the noise about Pickett-to-Carolina being fake news. I recognize that even some of the beat reporters down there would be “shocked” (their words) if Pickett is the pick.
But, I think Tepper will go out of his way to ensure that the team doesn't miss out on their long-term answer at the position, even if it means making a (hideous) reach with the team's top pick.
Which Need Does Atlanta Address At #8?
While we're on the topic of "inadequate present solutions at the quarterback position," I know the team plans to entire next season with Marcus Mariota as their starter, and feels (relatively) comfortable with that arrangement given his familiarity with the schemes employed by head coach Arthur Smith.
But I definitely put some stock into the whispers that would continue to come up in the pre-Draft process (after the Falcons dealt Matt Ryan anyway), about Atlanta looking to trade up into the top 3 to 5 picks in the Draft. While it may not happen on Draft day, I still think Atlanta had (or is having) conversations about it. Mariota may not even be 30 years old yet, but Atlanta simply can't trust him to remain healthy for 16 games, given his injury history.
Falcons GM Terry Fontenot has also been keeping a keen eye on ensuring Atlanta has their long-term answer at quarterback. After all, they were this close to landing Deshaun Watson themselves. And a year ago, many people thought Atlanta would actually favor taking Trey Lance over Kyle Pitts, if the former was available when Atlanta was on the clock at #4 overall; obviously, he wasn't.
Again, I think that in the end, I think Atlanta would find it too cost-prohibitive to move up. Such a move would very likely force them to surrender their first, both of their seconds, at least one of their third-round picks, and maybe even another third or a future selection. That's A LOT, especially when they could just as well sit tight at #8 and take the best wide receiver available to refill their empty cupboard at the receiver spot. The prevailing thought is that Drake London could/should be available at #8, and he would be someone who fits what Atlanta wants in a WR1.
Still, I think Atlanta is going to do a lot of tire-kicking on the idea of making a move upwards, even if it doesn't end up amounting to anything.
Shovel Passes
I will die on this hill: if Matt Corral from Ole Miss was about two inches taller and 20lbs heavier, he’d be the runaway favorite for the best QB prospect among this admittedly terrible crop in the 2022 Draft. He's an ultra competitive, no quit in his vocabulary, team-oriented guy whom teammates will rally around. Despite the shortcomings of his supporting cast (and there were PLENTY), he just kept coming after opposing teams and kept trying to put his guys in position to make plays. I love his release, mechanics, and pocket awareness. He's admittedly streaky, but when he's on, he demonstrates a fascinating level of both placement and velocity on his throws. But, his lack of bulk and stature terrifies me. I genuinely worry about him being someone who will consistently miss time over the course of a 16-game season. For those who want to read more about him, definitely check out this write-up from Football Outsiders. Personally, my comparison for Corral is something between "a smaller and spicier Marcus Mariota" and "Taylor Heinicke with a much livelier arm."
I'm not publishing a personal "Big Board" this year, because frankly, I'm simply not motivated enough to do so in a Draft that's painfully thin on blue chip talent. However, on my hypothetical Big Board for 2022, I would most likely have NC State offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu and/or Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner as my interchangeable #1 and #1A players. I think they're the two best players in the Draft, and a notch above everyone else in terms of their overall quantitative talent(s) and ceiling. When I watch Ekwonu, he reminds me of a raw Trent Williams. Gardner is a harder comp, but I see his upside as something like a less-physical (but more grabby) Patrick Peterson.
I alluded to it above, but to further elaborate: the Draft world has been pretty scattershot when predicting who Houston will take with the #3 overall pick, but I'm pretty comfortable in my belief that they'll select offensive lineman Evan Neal from the University of Alabama. For one, I think they'll look to take an offensive lineman over an edge rusher here, especially after declining incumbent right tackle Tytus Howard's 5th-year option. And while I wouldn't be surprised at all if they addressed said need by taking Ekwonu over Neal, don't forget that General Manager Nick Caserio is a New England alumnus, so you can almost certainly bet that there's a relationship and trust between him and Alabama head coach Nick Saban, tipping the choice in Neal's favor.
The mock draft world continues to pair the New York Giants with a defensive back at pick #7 (for the record: you cannot fathom the amount of expletives I will shout if the Giants do use this pick on Sauce Gardener or Kyle Hamilton), but I do put a lot of credence into what some other Draft observers have said: namely, their expectation that the Giants will be more than open to trading down from this spot. After all, during the four drafts that new General Manager Joe Schoen helped preside over when he was in Buffalo, the Bills traded one of their top two picks in three of those four drafts.
Among presumed first-round picks, Jameson Williams is one of two players to see their draft stock start soaring upwards in these last few days before the Draft (the other, for the record, is LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.). It sounds like NFL decision makers aren't nearly as worried about the ACL injury he sustained in January as it was previously made out to be -- a fact that doesn't surprise me in the slightest, given the ubiquity of ACL injuries and the increasingly sophisticated rehabilitation protocols for such injuries. I already mentioned that he's a possibility for the New York Jets at #10, but I also wouldn't be surprised if a team trades up to the #9 spot (with Seattle) to steal him away from the Jets. If Williams does clear New York at #10 and Houston at #13, there's a strong possibility he would get picked with either of New Orleans' or Philadelphia's selections in the middle of the first round. Also, keep an eye out for the Kansas City Chiefs making a splash move to trade up to get him.
The more I watch, research, and think about University of Georgia wide receiver George Pickens, the more comfortable I feel about putting him among the "tier 1" wide receivers of this Draft, alongside Garrett Wilson, Drake London, and Jameson Williams; yes, I don't consider Olave to be in that tier 1 group, for those keeping score. And if you wanted to have a conversation about how you thought Pickens should actually be drafted ahead of any of those guys, you wouldn't get much of a rebuttal from me.
I think former Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman dropped a fascinating quote that will likely get overlooked by 99% of football fans. When responding to a question about how NFL GM's plan for the offseason, he cautioned against succumbing to outside pressure to make a splash free agent acquisition -- particularly from the directive of the team owner, who only looks at the move from the prism of selling more seats (you can read the full quote here). I've personally dubbed this as "Impetuous Owner Theory:" if/when a team makes a short-sighted or head-scratching personnel decision, it almost always is in reaction to an impetuous and impatient owner's demands. ■